Genocide: Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza and Palestine

The Pakistan Institute of International Affairs (PIIA) organized a Seminar on Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza and Palestine on Saturday, 9 March 2024 at 4.00 p.m. in the Library of the Institute. Introduction by Dr Masuma Hasan, Chairperson, The Pakistan Institute of International Affairs. Speakers: Mr Muhammad Oves Anwar, Director, Research Society of International Law (RSIL), Islamabad, on International Law and International Crimes in View of South Africa’s Case against Israel and the Ruling of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) Ms Sana Pirzada, Barrister and human rights defender, on Psychological Impact of the War on the People of Gaza Mr M. Shahrukh Shahnawaz, Advocate High Court of Sindh and visiting faculty member, Department of International Relations, Karachi University, on the International Community’s Role in Resolving the Palestine Conflict

While almost 31,000 Palestinians have been killed and 175,000 buildings destroyed by Israeli bombing in Gaza, the psychological trauma and mental pain of Palestinians, which is beyond comprehension for the outside world, is going to haunt them for the rest of their lives, legal experts and rights activists told attendees at a seminar on Saturday evening. 

The seminar organised by the Pakistan Institute of International Affairs (PIIA) was titled ‘Humanitarian crisis in Gaza and Palestine’. 

Mohammad Oves Anwar, Director Research Society of International Law (RSIL) was the first of the three speakers. He gave an overview of the crisis and international laws in order to understand what’s happening in the region. 

He said Gaza is the home to 2.3 million Palestinians, almost 31,000 have been martyred and 72,500 injured. 

Over 31,000 people killed, 175,000 buildings have been destroyed in Israeli bombing 

About 75 per cent of the entire population of Gaza has been displaced; 1.5m people have been crammed into the tiny portion of Rafah, the last bastion of any protection. “Israel has already started to attack it… Every bomb will have multiple casualties. Another startling fact is that 175,000 buildings, every single institution of higher learning, have been destroyed. That is, 61 per cent of built structure of Gaza has been destroyed.” 

He said the other concept that he wanted to look at was that of the occupation. “An occupation is a territory which is held by another country to which it does not have any lawful excuse to be there. After the global acceptance of UN Charter in 1945, acquisition of territory through conquest, through military attack, is simply not possible. You have blanket prohibition on the use of force or the threat of the use of force in Article 2(4) of the UN Charter. Therefore, any territory occupied after 1945 cannot become part of another state. If it does become part of another state, it’s called annexation. We have recognised opinions of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and of the Israeli high court which say that the territory of West Bank, Gaza is occupied territory. Every attempt of settlement is a form of annexation, unlawful by definition.” 

After informing the audience on how Israel violates international laws, Mr Anwar concluded his speech with the silver lining that “international laws give us the language of critique”. 

Barrister, writer and human rights defender Sana Pirzada in a moving presentation highlighted the psychological impact of the war on the people of Gaza. She said: “Mental illnesses are scars that cannot be seen. Death is lamentable, but it brings your pain to an end, whereas a mental illness is something that you have to live with for the rest of your life, which is what the people of Gaza have been doing for decades.” 

She as a lawyer wrote a letter to the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court because a few months ago he was asking everyone to send evidence that was required to prosecute Netanyahu and his team. “I said to him you and I have never been in a war zone, we do not know what the sound of bombs is like, we do not know what it feels like to wake up in a hospital to find our loved ones lying dead, we do not know what it feels to see the sight of dead children… If you have to live with something like that for the rest of your life, how is it going to impact you?” 

Ms Pirzada sharing some statistics with the attendees said that the World Bank in 2022 found that more than half of the adult population in Gaza had screened positive for depression; a smaller number showed signs of post-traumatic stress disorder. 

“Before the war, more than 500,000 children required mental help and psychosocial support. Now unfortunately the number has risen to over a million. What’s more painful is that half of the children in Gaza have contemplated suicide. Children as young as five have said that they’d rather die than live.” 

She said there are people in Gaza with obsessive compulsive disorder and there are those who have nightmares and shut their windows because they feel something is about to happen, someone is about to barge in or a bomb is about to explode. She also mentioned anxiety and insomnia. “Kids have nightmares of soldiers ransacking their homes. Ten thousand children have been killed. The blasts have led to amputations and according to the UN nearly 335,000 children under five have a high risk of severe malnutrition. Incubators have shut down. Children have lost limbs… Unicef has said that the Gaza strip is the most dangerous place in the world to be a child.” 

Ms Pirzada quoting a news outlet said most of the children in Gaza like to be engineers when they grow up because they want to rebuild Gaza or become doctors to help people because they’ve lost loved ones in front of their eyes. She rounded off her speech by saying that despite hell, the people of Gaza have shown resilience and adapted to community-based coping strategies. 

Shahrukh Shahnawaz, advocate High Court of Sindh, shed light on the international community’s role in resolving the Palestinian conflict. 

He said the birth of the modern international community was seen after the Second World War with the creation of the UN in 1945 along with the beginning of the Palestine conflict in 1948. The UN started with 51 members which later increased to 193. “It is estimated that between 1945 and 1960 around three dozen new states emerged after being freed from the control of their colonial masters. This allowed the former colonies to raise their collective voice against their former colonial masters.” 

Earlier, Chairperson PIIA Dr Masuma Hasan introduced the speakers to the audience.

Election Year 2024: Implications for International Community

The Pakistan Institute of International Affairs (PIIA) organized a seminar on Election Year 2024: Implications for International Community, on Tuesday, 23rd January 2024 at 4.00 p.m. in the Library of the Institute. Speakers: * Ambassador (R) Mustafa Kamal Kazi, former Ambassador of Pakistan to Russia, The Netherlands, Indonesia and Iraq, and Pakistan’s Permanent Representative to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) * Dr. Maria Sultan, Chairperson and President, South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SASSI) University. She is adviser to the Ministry of Defence on Strategic and Military Affairs.

Plight of stranded Pakistanis in Dhaka and billions in frozen fund

Pakistan has not been able to learn anything from the secession of East Pakistan as it still continues to follow the same policies and methods that led to the country’s disintegration on 16 December 1971, particularly the unequal distribution of resources and authoritarian as well as repressive attitude towards ethnolinguistic diversity in the country. 

The country also needs to recover funds of billions of rupees meant for the repatriation of stranded Pakistanis in Bangladesh, that lie in the Habib Bank Limited and had been frozen by the United States over allegations of terror financing after 9/11. 

These view were expressed by speakers at a seminar titled “The East Pakistan tragedy: contemporary concerns,” organised by the Pakistan Institute of International Affairs (PIIA) at its library here on Saturday. 

Speaking on the occasion, PIIA chairperson Dr Masuma Hasan said the separation of East Pakistan from West Pakistan was a monumental catastrophe which happened due to various factors that had accumulated over the past many years and that the effects of that tragedy had lingered on till this time.

Addressing the key issues that led to the separation of East Pakistan, Executive Director of Institute of Business Administration (IBA) Karachi Dr S. Akbar Zaidi said the country was doomed from the beginning as West Pakistan had prejudice and racism against Bengalis. 

They were looked down upon on the basis of colour and height and were kept marginalised, he added. 

Dr Moonis Ahmar, meritorious professor at the department of International Relations and former dean faculty of social sciences at the University of Karachi, highlighted the plight of stranded Pakistanis in Bangladesh, who are languishing in camps for decades. 

He said there were 66 camps in Bangladesh where thousands of ‘forgotten’ Pakistanis were living in a poor condition for the past 52 years as Pakistan had failed to repatriate them. 

He said efforts had been made to bring them back but those efforts were not successful. In 1988, the government of Pakistan took an important step and established a fund for the repatriation and rehabilitation of the stranded Pakistanis in Bangladesh with the help of The Muslim World League, an international Islamic NGO, Dr Ahmar said. 

However, that process was stopped and the fund of millions of rupees — now in the Habib Bank Limited and has multiplied over the years into billions of rupees — was frozen by the United States over allegations that it would allegedly be used in terror financing, he added. 

He said the people stranded there also complained that Pakistan accepted millions of Afghan as well as Bengali refugees, but they, the loyal Pakistanis, remained forgotten. 

The way out now was that the frozen funds be taken out and utilised to repatriate the stranded Pakistanis, or, if that’s not possible, to help them provide an honourable way of living in Bangladesh with equal rights and citizenship, Dr Ahmar suggested. 

Addressing fault lines in Pakistan’s nation building experiment, Dr Farhan Hanif Siddiqi, director and associate professor at the School of Politics and International Relations, Quaid-i-Azam University, said nation building was mostly seen and practiced in Pakistan, as was many other countries, as manufacturing homogeneity, or unity, through hegemonic practices, in which cultures, myths, symbols, and histories were manufactured with the intention of homogenising social and ethnic diversity in the service of nation building. He said:

But this is where the problem lies because ethnic identities and social diversity are denied and suppressed in such hegemonic practices.

He added that all this had been happening in Pakistan since its inception and contributed mainly to its disintegration. 

Therefore, he said, Pakistan needed to normalise diversity, multilingualism and multiculturalism and it was high time that these problems were addressed. 

He said it was very important for a country to be self-reflecting and self-critical for the purpose of nation building but such was not the case with Pakistan as the political leaders and establishment of the country always shifted the blame onto others and never accepted criticism. 

Dr Farhan also said that in Pakistan, the issue of majoritarianism had also become a major challenge where the majority was afraid of monitories and tried to keep them suppressed. 

Zafar Shafique, member of the council of PIIA and CEO of Paradise International Group of Companies, discussed the economic effects on companies, institutes and people after the fall of Dhaka. 

He said Pakistan faced various economic problems after the secession. There was industrial and economic disruption, loss of employment and termination of international contracts, all resulting in severe loss of profit.

Published in Dawn 17 December 2023

Yash Kumar: Geopolitical Challenges and Natural Resource Dilemmas and the Struggle for Economic Prosperity in Pakistan

Introduction:

Despite being bestowed with enormous resources including coal, copper, gold, human resource and access to vast ocean, Pakistan has failed to harness the benefits, its resources could offer to boost its economy. Although, there have been numerous causes behind its ill performance in utilization of its natural resources in national prosperity but geographical factors contribute the most to it. First of all, being located at the heart of hostile neighbors particularly, India and Afghanistan, it has been compelled to divert its attention on its security. Moreover, by virtue of its proximity with China and being in vicinity of Russia it has remained as transit route for global powers for their vested interests. Its mountainous terrain, climate change vulnerability, poor infrastructural development, instable region, terrorism and growing population have turned what could be a geographical blessing into geographical curse. Resultantly, Pakistan is suffering at every front which has hindered the economic prosperity by hijacking its upward flight.

Pakistan a land rich in resources: An Overview

“While history has been very unkind to Pakistan, its geography has been its greatest benefits” {Stephen Phillips Cohen}

Pakistan is a land of natural resources, its four provinces provide a vivid landscape and vast minerals, underneath their respective land. It has been a fourth populous country with more than sixty percent population below the age of 30 years. For instance, Balochistan encompasses dry terrain and covers one of the largest reserves of Gold, Copper, coal and other precious metals in the areas of Chaghi, Rekodik, Mach, Naushki and Dalbandin. Similarly, this provinces became the first to equip Pakistan with energy resources like gas from Sui in 1952.

Moreover, Sindh accounts as a vibrant land for agriculture and is endowed with world 9th largest coal reserves in Tharparkar. Likewise the Kirthar range is also known to be house of gypsum, limestone and other minerals. Besides, Sindh nowadays is the key indigenous source of gas for domestic use of entire Pakistan. Also, these two provinces make vast 1046km coast line that opens it to world and blue economy from south.

Simultaneously, Punjab and KPK are the house of salt, marble and precious stones respectively. Overall, Pakistan geography is blessed with the golden sparrow which has been restricted by its very neighbors and its overall mismanagement.

Geographical Factors hindering the utilization of natural resources in national prosperity.

Pakistan and its Neighboring Countries a) Surrounded by hostile and uneven neighbors:

Pakistan located at the crossroads of Asia is connecting point for entire region. It can open the landlocked Central Asian Republics to the world and provide the shortest route to enhance connectivity. Similarly, its multitude of natural resources can also get way to world`s market, fulfil indigenous requirements and boost Pakistan`s economy; however, this geo-political potential and endowment of natural resources are yet to be exploited to attain sustainable development. As this very geography is hindering the utilization of natural resources and strategic location in achieving the peace and prosperity.

Indian evil aspirations and destabilizing tactics against Pakistan:

India has been the focal point for foreign policy of Pakistan, Sardar Patel right after independence remarked that ‘Pakistan will crawl back to rejoin India’ and India since then has been lobbying against Pakistan and has diverted its attention towards security and defense of the state. Moreover, India is sponsoring terrorism and igniting separatist elements particularly in the province of Balochistan which is land of hidden treasure. Balochistan`s Gawadar a deep sea port is golden sparrow to make Pakistan a transit hub for entire region. But India`s destabilizing tactics which have been substantiated by the arrest of Indian Naval officer spying and financing terrorism in Balochistan.

Unstable Afghanistan: a Pandora box of regional instability:

Afghanistan, the western neighbor has also been a key hurdle in exploitation of natural resources. Afghanistan’s destabilization has always preoccupied Pakistan with plethora of other socio-economic ills including Kilashankov culture, smuggling of narcotics, and disturbance in social fabric, refugee crisis, terrorism, and security concerns. Similarly, the ripples of Afghanistan conundrum and its instability have incurred huge cost on Pakistan. By

virtue of being Afghanistan’s neighbor Pakistan was left with no option by the USA but to be front ally in global war against terror resulting in a complete mess in social, economic and political terms.

Transit hub for cold war rivals:

This location has always served as the transit route for global powers, during the time of British India, this location was considered pivotal for great game in between Soviet Russia and British. Simultaneously, after independence the cold war rivals the USA and Russia stuck here when Washington joined hands with Pakistan to push the red army back in Afghanistan. Overall, this location besides being land of opportunities has also been an open ground for global players to contend for their vested interest but in disguise it has left Pakistan to lag behind in prosperity.

Sanctioned Iran: a bottleneck towards connectivity:

Iran on western southern west is a fluctuating friend, although we enjoy good relations with infrequent border clashes but Iran being under strict sanctions of West has been a hurdle in attaining a sustainable connectivity and interdependence towards Europe. Hence, this unsound Iran has been matter of concern and has diverted Pakistan’s attention from harnessing its resources to improve its economy.

Giant China: An opportunity under surveillance of west:

There is no denying fact that China is all-weather friend and a great contributor to Pakistan’s economy. This rising superpower has always stood by with Pakistan in every situation, the launch of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is nothing but a lifeline for Pakistan’s economy. It offers win-win situation to both and has the potential to uplift Pakistan status by making it a transit route for entire Asia. However, the USA and India having their nefarious designs against China’s rise have been propagating propaganda against CPEC by naming it debt trap. Similarly, the separatist elements are ignited in the province of Balochistan to sabotage the progress on this giant project

Climate change vulnerable country:

Pakistan is among top climate change vulnerable countries, it has witnessed more than 152 extreme weather events since the turn of 21st century. The mega floods of 2010, heat waves of 2015-16 and super floods of 2022 are instances in point; besides, droughts, famine, locust attacks, glacial melts, erratic rains, low yield, sea-erosion, water scarcity have been norm of day. Overall this hydra-headed monster has diverted Pakistan’s resources to unwanted and unpredictable events for which Pakistan has been unable to invest in exploitation of natural resources subsequently lagging behind in national prosperity

Mountainous terrain: An infrastructural deficit:

The landscape of Pakistan is characterized by formidable mountainous terrain surrounded by Himalaya, Karakoram, Hindukush and Takt-Sulaiman range where these majestic peaks contribute the breathtaking beauty of the country, they also present significant challenges in unraveling the mysteries of nature in exploitation of natural resources. Moreover, this has been unfortunate that Pakistan has been unable to establish a viable infrastructure throughout the country resulting in inability of Pakistan in utilization of its untapped resources for economic growth.

Terrorism and Security concerns:

The menace of terrorism has hit Pakistan hard. The rise of non-state actors and their subsequent presence in Afghanistan and free movement through porous Durand line. The fight against terrorism has cost Pakistan billion and thousands of innocents hence, security has been the prime concern and a lot of resources are being exhausted to curb this. Consequently, Pakistan has been distracted from the path of industrialization, and resource extraction rather because of this danger the existing industry is shifting abroad.

Over-population a time ticking bomb:

Pakistan’s population has grown considerably and it has been fourth populous country with no infrastructure, pitiable industrial sector, poor governance and lack of employment opportunities. This rapidly growing population has been a liability on already depleting resources and Pakistan has been pre-occupied with accommodating this huge population and is unable to explore and exploit new resources to cut on its imports and increase exports. This has given birth to new spiral of deficits.

Power mess in Indian ocean: A coastal liability

Indian Ocean is in the south of Pakistan and according to Zbigniew Brezezinski ‘An arc of crisis stretches along the shores of the Indian Ocean’ it is because big powers are eyeing to the untapped resources and key chock points of Indian Ocean and the great game of Indian Ocean is already in play. India in Indo-pacific Strategy of the USA has been signified as the strategic partner to contain China and the militarization of Indian Ocean by activating Quadrilateral Security Dialogue and AUKUS has been a security concern for Pakistan. The campaign of empowering India against China has been a serious security concern increasing the security dilemma pushing Pakistan towards arms race to ensure its security. Hence, with these state of affairs the power mess in Indian Ocean has been a coastal liability for Pakistan.

Deconstructing the concept of geographical curse with respect to Pakistan: A Critical perspective.

There is no denying the fact that Pakistan could use its geography as a boon and could be among top performing economies of the world keeping in view its geostrategic location. Pakistan holding the crown of being a junction point between the resource-efficient and resource-deficient countries in the South Asian region. However this has not been the case the geostrategic location has been turned out to be geographical curse and Pakistan has been the prisoner of its own geography. The nefarious designs and porous borders in the east and west of country preoccupied it badly and posed serious existential threats distracting it from attain the path to sustainable development by utilizing its enormous natural resources for its national prosperity.

Conclusion

To conclude, states can change their friends and foes but they cannot change their neighbors. Similarly, Pakistan is a potential country, a critical juncture for connecting the Asian region and opening the gates of interdependence between the energy haves and energy have-nots and offer its own vast natural resources including gold, coal, copper, and precious minerals to secure not only economic gains but also sustainable peace and prosperity.

However, evil intentions of surrounding countries particularly India and Afghanistan and continuous instability in the latter states has caused huge losses to Pakistan and have redirected entire attention towards security and defense of borders. Resultantly, this very geography has been a curse as Pakistan is helpless to fully exploit its resources and is heavily engaged in security and diplomacy related issues.

Yash Kumar, Research Assistant, PIIA

Experts call for using predictive AI cybersecurity to thwart attacks

Pakistan is not ready for cyber warfare, PIIA conference told … those who believed their privacy remained intact in cyberspace lived in imaginary world

The conference — Artificial Intelligence (AI) for Cyber Security — was organised by the Paki­stan Institute of Interna­tional Affairs (PIIA) here.

Experts at a conference on Saturday said that the country was more than 20 years behind the world in the field of digital security and it must move forward on a very fast track by adopting predictive cybersecurity infused with Artificial Intelligence in order to have a standing in the world of information in cyberspace.

There was a consensus among speakers that awareness of cybersecurity must be spread through educational institutions, particularly universities, and webinars and seminars should be conducted to make the general public aware of the challenges.

They were also of the view that the government should also let people work freely to bring required changes in the field.

Speaking on the occasion, Ammar Hussain Jaffri, a former senior official of the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) who also headed the National Response Centre for Cyber Crime (N3RC), said that he had been working on cybersecurity for the past 20 years. He said:

When I started working in the cybercrime unit of FIA 20 years ago we were ahead of India considering the initiatives we took for cybersecurity. But right now, we are even behind the place where we were standing 20 years ago.

Pakistan has been working on reactive cybersecurity up till now, but it’s time we start looking into predictive cybersecurity, which needs to be infused with AI, where possible attacks are predicted and the results are also accurate up to 90 per cent.

He shared that through AI, they looked into the matter of fake passports and detected anomalies in the system of the National Database and Registration Authority (Nadra) where people with fake passports were entered in random family trees to have a record.

Rahim Ali, chief technology officer of an international business outsourcing firm, said that Pakistan was not ready for cyber warfare, but it did not have an option to be not ready for it.

Explaining the complexity of the cybersecurity and its combination with the AI, he said that cybersecurity was not only for computers.

“Let me paint a picture of a cyber attack. First, your networks are compromised and you lose connection with everyone. Then the electronic media is stopped so you can’t see what’s happening on the ground. Utilities and public infrastructure are destroyed. The idea is to either steal, sabotage or compromise,” he explained.

“It is called ‘fire sale’ in cybersecurity. In this, a country’s infrastructure is systematically disengaged,” he said.

He gave another example of how there was a plan to assassinate the head of a country without sending an assassin to kill him.

“The plan was to hack the pacemaker, installed in the heart of that country’s head, and increase its current which could alter the heartbeat and kill him,” he added.

Maliha Masood, another IT professional and expert in risk management, information security management, internal audit and software quality assurance, shared that like all the other fields, the cyberspace also had good and bad actors. She said:

The problem with good actors is that they need to abide by many rules and standards. Whereas, the bad actors are free to do whatever they can. So, they limit many procedures for cybersecurity experts.

She said that the people who were in the cyberspace in any capacity and thought that their privacy remained intact, they were living in an imaginary world.

The experts also discussed how modern weapons could be altered and manipulated through AI, which was why it was important to have indigenous weaponry so the risks of manipulations could be minimised.

PIIA chairperson Dr Masuma Hasan thanked the panellists in her closing remarks.

Dr Muazzam A. Khan Khattak of the Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers, Dr Waqas Haider Khan Bangyal of Kohsar University’s Department of Computer Science, Dr Nudrat Nida of National University of Sciences and Technology delivered speeches at the inaugural session of the day-long conference.

Published in Dawn, 12 November 2023

US ‘double standards’ seen as major factor behind Israeli brutalities

The Western mind has never forgotten the Crusades, Ambassador Ghori

The Pakistan Institute of International Affairs (PIIA) recently organised a seminar where former ambassadors and academics delved into the subject of ‘Israeli Aggression in Gaza and Peace in the Middle East’.

They spoke about the double standards of the United States and observed that it was the major issue that harmed the peace in the volatile region.

PIIA chairperson Dr Masuma Hasan spoke about the present crisis in Gaza after Hamas fired 5,000 rockets at Israel on Oct 7. “Israel was bound to retaliate and has since let loose the worst kind of terror on the poor Palestinians of the narrow Gaza Strip,” she said while also pointing out that even though the West calls Hamas a terrorist organisation, it really stands for an Islamic resistance movement. 

While pointing an accusing finger at the United States, former ambassador and Pakistan’s permanent representative to the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons Mustafa Kamal Kazi said that in the case of Palestine there can be no greater hypocrisy and double standards.

“The United States of America even vetoed a United Nations Security Council resolution which sought not a ceasefire but just humanitarian pauses in Israel’s bombing for medicine and other essential life supporting supplies to enter Gaza,” he said.

“In my view, Washington’s three decisions after the year 2000 which directly or indirectly harmed the prospects of peace in the region are the events after the 9/11 tragedy leading to the invasion and occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq, President Trump’s abandonment of nuclear accord with Iran, making Iran free to raise uranium enrichment to a higher level. Therefore, raising the interest of other regional countries towards greater competitive interest in nuclear technology and the so-called Abraham Accords, which were the brainchild of amateur strategist Trump’s son-in-law, signed by the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan. 

“But these countries were in no position to advance the cause of settlement of the Palestinian and Israeli issue. On the contrary these accords triggered Palestinian desperation that now even their Arab governments were abandoning them through American persuasion. This unity amongst the Arab countries is a factor, which dilutes their strategic and economic power potential,” he said. 

“The Arab League has 22 members out of which six — Iraq, Yemen, Syria, Libya, Sudan and Somalia — have been crippled by conflicts. Sudan was even dismembered and partitioned. The Arab League was founded within an objective to develop close relations amongst the member states. But this Accord speaks for itself. Very disturbing reports have emerged during the current crisis that some Arab countries spy on the poor Palestinians and report to Israeli intelligence. This needs some soul searching,” he added.

He also spoke about American-led invasions in at least seven Muslim countries during the past 23 years, which has claimed lives of more than a million and displacement to around 37m. “It’s a clear signal to the Muslim world where they are standing in a West-dominated world where Islamophobia continues to flourish,” he said. 

Joining online from Canada, Ambassador Karmatullah Ghori was of the view that the Western mind has never forgotten the lessons of the Crusades. He said:

When history repeats itself the first time, it is a tragedy. When history repeats itself a second time, it is a calamity

What is the aggression here? It is not even a war. It is a Palestinian struggle for all their fundamental rights as they have been living under Israeli oppression for the last 75 years

About America and Europe, he said that they wanted to create a Western colony in the heart of the Arab world, which they have quite successfully as the Arabs surrounding Israel have not been of much help. 

Speaking on the occasion, Prof Dr Talat Ayesha Wizarat, the former chairperson of the Department of International Relations at the University of Karachi and former head of the Center of Policy and Area Studies at the Institute of Business Management, said she feels depressed at the plight of the Palestinians. She said:

They are waiting for food, electricity and medical help. Israel has attacked hospitals and schools. Something has to be done very quickly

Everywhere the US is interested in a ceasefire but when it comes to Gaza, they are not interested in a ceasefire

As a solution, she said that perhaps all the 65 members of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) should tell the US that if it does not change its attitude, they are all going to break diplomatic relations with it.

“Considering the present state of fear this seems like a dream. But threatening to do this would be effective I think. If all of the OIC members do it then it will present a different scenario. So I think the Muslim countries should do it for their own good, because if they think that only Gaza is going to suffer and that is going to be the end of the story, it is not going to end there. The US has already destroyed six or seven Muslim countries in a span of 23 years. They will not stop here,” she said.

Published in Dawn 22 October 2023

Beyond national Borders: The High Seas Treaty’s Role in Marine Conservation

A range of ocean sectors, from fishing and aquaculture to tourism, maritime transport, and renewable energy, provide food and vital nutrition to billions of people and to millions of livelihoods. The ocean supplies more than half of the planet’s oxygen. To maintain coastal defences during increasingly volatile weather and storms, the ocean plays a key role in ensuring coastal defences during increasingly volatile weather and storms, especially in vulnerable coastal communities, cities and states. The ocean is our most important carbon sink, absorbing around 30% of the CO2 emissions discharged into the atmosphere and producing half of the oxygen required for respiration. 

This indicates that marine biodiversity is as important for humans as it is for marine life. To preserve this world has jostled upon a single cause: the High Seas Treaty, which aims for the protection and sustainable use of marine biodiversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction. It is estimated that the high seas cover approximately 61 per cent of the world’s oceans. These areas are beyond national jurisdiction and governed by international law. 

Challenges to marine biodiversity

Interestingly, marine biologists have revealed that whales capture tons of carbon from the atmosphere through the process of eutrophication. It is a process through which the nutrient-rich feces of whales enhance the growth of phytoplankton and other aquatic vegetation in ocean waters. Phytoplankton convert CO2 into organic carbon during photosynthesis. 

Human activities, such as oil and chemical pollution, as well as oil spills, impact whales and phytoplankton. In addition, climate change-induced increases in ocean temperature and acidification can affect phytoplankton populations and disrupt nutrient availability. Overfishing, particularly of species that are preyed upon by whales, indirectly disrupts the marine food web and affects nutrient levels. 

Pollution

Pollution is one of the leading causes of habitat degradation in marine ecosystems. Land-based pollutants, such as nutrients, heavy metals, and plastics, can harm marine life and contaminate marine environments.  According to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) Progress Report 2023, approximately 17 million tons of plastic trash have entered the oceans, accounting for up to 85 per cent of marine litter, with projections of doubling or tripling each year by 2040. According to this projection, unless action is taken, there will be more plastic in water than in fish by 2050. 

Overfishing

Overfishing is a reckless exercise that causes damage to the marine biodiversity. We deplete not only the fish we target, but also numerous other species captured unintentionally in our fishing gear when we cast nets too broad and trawl too deep. As a result of this search, the marine food web is constantly changing, resulting in a cascade of ecological effects. Coral reefs and bottom habitats suffer collateral damage, much like a thoughtless lumberjack razing forest. Furthermore, overfishing reduces genetic diversity in fish, making marine life less adaptable to the ever-shifting currents of environmental change. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, one-third of the world’s assessed fisheries are now pushed beyond their biological limits. To benefit both deep-sea wonders and future generations, we need to pay attention to and practice appropriate ocean stewardship. 

Ocean Acidification

 Ocean acidification occurs when the ocean absorbs carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This also changes the chemistry of the ocean. Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have nearly doubled during the industrial revolution, rising from 280 to over 400 parts per million (ppm). This process has been exacerbated by human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels. Within a decade, scientists have predicted that 86 per cent of the ocean will be warmer and more acidic than at any time in modern history. By 2100, the pH of the ocean could drop to less than 7.8, which is a drop of more than 150 per cent from today. This could have devastating consequences for marine life, food security, and the global economy. 

High Seas Treaty: A ray of hope

On 20 September, 2023, around 70 member countries of the United Nations (UN) signed the first ever ‘High Seas Treaty,’ which aims to protect the international high seas that are currently beyond any jurisdiction. All the major powers of the world, including the United States of America, China, France, Mexico, Britain, Germany, Australia, and the European Union (EU), have signed the treaty. This treaty is also known as Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction (BBBJ). Only 39 per cent of the world’s oceans are covered by UN conventions, 61 per cent are outside any jurisdiction, and a high seas treaty was established to protect marine biodiversity in this large area of the oceans. Globally, governance is absent in almost two-thirds of oceans. 

A decade of discussion, negotiation, and advocacy led to the adoption of this treaty, which navigated a number of thorny geopolitical issues, particularly the value of public good’s value. This opens the door for multilateral discussions that will have a profound impact on the future of our shared environment. 

As it gathered almost all the major powers of the world on a single platform to preserve the habitat of the marine ecosystem, the UN Secretary General António Guterres termed it a ‘success for multilateralism.’ In order to accomplish its goals, the treaty invokes the ‘polluter-pays’ principle and the ‘precautionary approach,’ these two are important doctrines of international environmental frameworks. 

Subtle Complexities within the Details

The agreement marked an end to a prolonged discussion, but the treaty to be ratified by 60 signatory states. The ratification of a treaty is certainly a tiring process because it opens up avenues for debate and conflicting opinions between stakeholders and interest groups. The lack of consensus usually sabotages the process and halts it. However, this treaty probably would not fall into a conspiracy, as it holistically talks about the existential threat posed to the marine ecosystem.  

Conclusion

With the increased involvement of humans, marine biodiversity is shrinking, causing marine species to become extinct. Furthermore, marine biodiversity is also closely associated with the environment of our planet, as it captures carbon dioxide, which is vital for our planet during times of environmental damage. A high seas treaty is urgently needed in the midst of this habitat degradation of marine ecosystems. This will further bring two-thirds of the oceans under the jurisdiction of global governments. Furthermore, it provides a framework for regulating human activities in the high seas which is necessary to protect the oceans for our future generations.

Asif Ali, Research Assistant at The Pakistan Institute of International Affairs. 

Irfan Amir: The Trans-Afghan Railway: A real possibility or just a pipe dream?

The Trans-Afghan Railway aims to connect Uzbekistan and Pakistan via Afghanistan. The idea for this venture was discussed for many years, but the assignment had never been realized by observing the unstable situation of Afghanistan. However, after the withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan, it has become stable to some extent, so there is a growing interest to have trade opportunities between Central Asia and South Asia. The proposed railway project holds notable prospects for enhancing railway links from Uzbekistan to Pakistan through Pakistan, facilitating economic, security and stability in the region. However, it requires dealing with multiple challenges. These include the tough mountainous topography, managing the complexities of political uncertainty in Afghanistan, security and the lack of sufficient funding.

On 18 July 2023, the trilateral working groups from the three countries had a meeting in Islamabad. They agreed to finalise the Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan (UAP) railway project. The project would start from Termez in Uzbekistan to connect Afghanistan and Pakistan by Mazar-i-Sharif and Logar and the Kharlachi border point in the Kurram region. The project was earlier planned to enter Pakistani territory through the Torkham border in the province of Nangarhar, but later it was decided to add the Kharlachi border.

This railway link has prospects to enable effortless travel of people and goods between regions, which is expected to promote trade and economic growth. The easier movement would be substantial to reduce the cost of transporting goods between Central and South Asia. It would bring the attraction of new markets for businesses in both regions. According to the Ministry of Railways, the UAP railway project will boost regional trade and transit among joining countries along with the promotion of people-to-people networks in the region. 

Furthermore, the proposed rail line has the potential to shift Uzbekistan’s status from a doubly landlocked country to land-linked with the Indian Ocean. Unquestionably, Uzbekistan sees Pakistan as a more suitable partner than its alternatives for trade with other countries; precisely, Iran with economic sanctions and Turkmenistan with additional border inspections, transit tariffs, costs and delays. It is believed that this project will reduce the delivery time of goods to Pakistan by about five days and transport costs by less than 40 per cent. Moreover, economists have evaluated that the cost of a container for transportation from Tashkent to Karachi can be around 1400-1600 US dollars, which is half the price of transporting from Tashkent to Bandar Abbas, 2600-3000 US dollars. 

Presently, trade between South Asia and the Central Asian States (CARs) is limited, majorly due to the absence of proper connectivity. The Trans-Afghan Railway project can be a point to provide enough opportunity to achieve extensive trade in the above mentioned regions. It could be able to transmit around 15 million tons of cargo every year on the route of the Trans-Afghan Railway.  This plan would not only bring trade opportunities, but rather it could bring expectedly, 5 million jobs along the route by accessing cheaper and easier trade.

Challenges in realising the Trans-Afghan Railway

It is not a realistic approach to execute Trans-Afghan Railway Project without considering the complexities, one of the most significant ones is security. Afghanistan’s internal situation is unstable, and there are serious threats to the initiative. It could be targeted by different militias and insurgents residing inside Afghanistan. Under the Taliban government, Afghanistan looks a bit more peaceful, since the withdrawal of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), but still, there are different kinds of insurgencies. 

The Islamic State – Khorasan Province (ISIS) posed direct threats by carrying out several operations in the provinces of Kabul and Herat.  This could posture a thoughtful barrier to the progress of the Trans-Afghan Railway Project, chiefly through mountainous and difficult terrain. Besides, the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is pursuing military operations against the Pakistani government, which could be another danger to the successful execution of the project.

Additionally, the railway line would pass through the most challenging pass, known as the Salang Pass, which is located at an altitude of 3,500 metres.  It makes it the highest railway in the world. This Pass is vulnerable to heavy snowfall in the winter, which could restrict the railway for a long time. Further, the difference in gauges used by the three countries: Uzbekistan 1,520 mm, Pakistan 1,676 mm, and Afghanistan 1,435 mm are not to be ignored, as it could limit the efficiency of transportation times. 

Another considerable challenge is the cost of the project. The railway is expected to cost a huge amount of money, estimated to be around eight billion US dollars. This is a huge amount of money for the three countries. Currently, Tashkent, Kabul and Islamabad are not economically strong to have this burden. Simultaneously, there is uncertainty for the investors to invest as third countries; they know that the situation of Afghanistan is unstable and mishaps could be expected. 

Above all, the de facto government of the Taliban in Afghanistan is not broadly recognised in the world. As a result, international interest is absent. The Russian Railways, World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the Islamic Development Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank were asked to fund, but it was not successful. 

 The Trans-Afghan Railway Project has the potential to be a significant development for the region in general and Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan in particular, which would be more specific to economy, and security. However, past examples are not encouraging the present scheme, especially security and lack of international interests. It is still not clear who will take the burden to fund the entire project. So, it should be rationally analysed with pragmatic solutions to the challenges. Possible solutions can be establishing a mutually agreed forum of the three countries, to deal with challenges, whether it is the issue of funding or security. Similarly, it is crucial to develop integrated corridor management mechanisms to expedite the coordination between the railway authorities and stakeholders.

Irfan Amir is a Research Assistant at The Pakistan Institute of International Affairs

The finance minister’s only remaining function is to get more loans to repay past ones

“Any finance minister of Pakistan has only one very simple task of how to get more loans to repay past loans. That is the only function of the country’s economy left. There will, of course, be long statements about revenue generation, development, industrialisation, education, health, etc. But these are all fairy tales because there is no money for anything. And nothing will happen,” said eminent economist Dr Kaiser Bengali during our recent seminar.

Speaking at a seminar — The State of Pakistan’s Economy: What Next? — organised by the Pakistan Institute of International Affairs (PIIA) here on Saturday, Dr Bengali said that the Pakistan he knew no longer exists. 

“The revenue your latest budget claims to collect will never be collected. And the items on which the expenditure has been allocated will never be spent because we don’t have the money,” he said. 

“The only thing that we need to do now in terms of managing the economy is how to get more loans to pay past loans. And since we will not get all loans to pay all our past loans, we will sell our assets. Everything is on sale here. We already have a banking sector that is 80 per cent foreign-owned, we have a telecom sector that is 100 per cent foreign-owned but more is to come.

Shabbar Zaidi calls for correcting NFC award, creation of new provinces, putting an end to smuggling from Iran, Afghanistan

“We have just announced the privatisation of a port terminal in Karachi, a Saudi team has visited all our airports and three major airports are about to be handed over to foreign interests. We use all kinds of terminologies to say we are not selling them we are just outsourcing them but basically it is handing over control of these assets. More and more will follow,” he pointed out. 

Dr Bengali said that two windows have closed here, perhaps permanently. “One is the economy window and the other is the security window,” he said. 

“Soon we will be employees of Chinese, Saudi, Emirati and other employers as Pakistan will be owned by them. We lost our economic sovereignty. It didn’t happen today. From 1993 onward for 16 years three State Bank governors came from outside Pakistan. They were employees of international organisations, they had not served in Pakistan for more than 10 years but now that we are burying our economic sovereignty in a more formal way, the economy window has closed. 

“The security window has also closed. The international geostrategic architecture has changed. For some 60 years of the last 75 years of Pakistan’s existence we cashed in on the Cold War between the United States and Soviet Union. Pakistan did all the dirty work for the Americans and got paid for it. But the United States does not need our services anymore. If the confrontation is with China, the Americans need Indian, not Pakistan. In fact, Pakistan is an irritant in the process,” he said, adding that the irritant has to be tamed and de-fanged. 

“And if we are defanged then of course there is no security role to play, no wars to fight. Then what will happen? The economic footprint of the military will increase. They are already into services and industry. That will increase. So we achieved independence from British colonialism and we are entering the phase of cantonment colonialism,” he concluded.

Adding to the economic gloom, former chairman of the Federal Board of Revenue Syed Shabbar Zaidi said that Pakistanis don’t even realise that they have ruined themselves. 

“We don’t even have the money for repayment of our foreign debts of US $130 billion as per schedule. Some 85 per cent of our bank’s debts are used by federal government loans, inflation is on the rise, there is subsidy on electricity of over Rs1,000 billion, the state’s own enterprise losses are over Rs1,000 billion, there are unfunded pensions to be paid, over 50 million children are not getting education and on top of all that we have the highest population growth in the world,” he reminded. 

His solutions to the economic problems included taking a strategic u-turn on the country’s location advantage and see China as our supplier and the USA as our buyer. 

He also asked for transparency on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, an end to smuggling from Afghanistan and Iran, correcting the National Finance Commission Award, enforcing Article 140A of the Constitution by empowering local government, revival of the ‘Planning Commission’ with a non-political chairman and creation of new provinces, at least 10 instead of just four.

While sharing his opinions on the issue of the economy of Pakistan, Assistant Professor of Social Development and Policy at the Habib University, Dr Aqdas Afzal said that the country’s decline began when it opened free trade. 

“But can we even do the trade? Do we even make anything exclusive that the world would want to buy from us? No one here talks about investment in human capital. We don’t have a skilled workforce and we opened free trade,” he pointed out, adding that other countries are now into strategic trade and value added trade.

“The United States only aims to compete with China. It makes whatever China cannot make,” he said while providing an example of strategic trade. “We should also identify winners and pick them to compete with the rest of the world,” he said. 

PIIA chairperson Dr Masuma Hasan also spoke.

Published in Dawn, 16 July 2023

Russia-Ukraine war and the future of European Politics

The European Union (EU), since its inception, has been the face of unity in International politics. As an exemplary model of alliance, in a world full of divided nations and militarised borders. The EU has proved time and time again that despite different outlooks, states can come together on combined and collective policymaking and action. This remained true following the Russian invasion of Ukraine  in early 2022, as the EU was quick to formulate its response and present Russia with a unified front. As the war continues, a look into the impacts of war shows rocky domestic politics within Europe. Despite being in its early stages, such cases tend to stick out like a sore thumb. The EU should stay vigilant lest Russia takes dissenting voices as a fallout between Europe.

It is a year and a half since Russian troops invaded Ukraine and started a full-fledged war, a war that was unforeseen at least by the majority of commentators, because since the end of the Second World War, Europe was not expecting to see another horrifying conflict within its territory. However, despite the unexpected nature of the war, hostility between Russia and Ukraine is not a new phenomenon. It dates back many years, with the annexation of Crimea in 2014 being one of the major events to take place as a result of this animosity. 

Today as Russia continues to show aggression, the world observes the deep-rooted issues that it leaves in its wake. The economic crisis following the onset of war has not only spread across Europe but also significantly impacted countries across the globe. Disrupted supply chains of gas and oil created an overall environment of economic insecurity among the European states. Europe that was once heavily dependent on Russian gas and oil has now had to cut back completely on Russian supplies, turning to other providers such as Qatar. Governments have also had to pay millions in subsidies, in order to protect the masses from hiked prices. 

Russia has also had to face a surge of individual sanctions since the war started, the numbers reaching around 13,840 since the invasion. These sanctions might have become a deterrent for Russia, however, that is not the case. One of the reasons could be attributed to the fact that over the years the country has made itself self-sufficient, hence no drastic effect. Subsequently, certain commentators believe that prolonged sanctions could lead to reduction in production capacity. This is due to the fact that there are export restrictions. Secondly, Putin does not seem bothered by the sanctions and has not expressed any desire for negotiations in order to lessen the sanctions. For Europe this is a matter of concern because the lack of apprehension from Russia shows that the war could go on for long. 

Apart from the economic crisis, the war has taken a toll on the political conditions of Europe as well. Although the European Union manages to get every member state on one page, in most instances, there are certain divisions between the states. Said divisions are now apparent in the response countries have towards Russia. Hungary and Slovakia have remained neutral opposing sanctions against Russia. Austria has also gone back to pre-war levels of gas imports. These are all indicative of the fact that these divisions could play a decisive role in the future politics of the EU.  

Since the war is a developing story, conclusive remarks cannot be made for the future of the EU, but that does not steer us clear from speculating that European politics could look notably different if the current divisions remain unaddressed. If looked at in detail this disunity predates the war, while some analysts have claimed that this disunity existed since the end of the Cold War, but was never dealt with in a coherent manner. Within the European Union, the member states have often preferred bilateral ties with Russia rather than a common EU approach. This is relevant today too since Central and Eastern European countries often do not see eye to eye with Western European states. 

Viktor Orban, the Hungarian Prime Minister, has made sure to leave no room for doubt when it comes to showing support for Russia. The invasion of Ukraine took place a few days before elections in Hungary and the Fidesz party has since then been very open and vocal about their alliance with Russia. As a result, Hungary stood isolated and at the brink of economic turmoil which resulted in increased narrative building against the EU. Similarly, Slovakia is nearing elections where a pro-Russia candidate is set to win, this could seriously derail the EU’s unified stance against Russia. 

This brings forth the next concern for European politics, which is an increase in right-wing populist sentiments. Although in most cases it is not reflected in the foreign policies of states and remains a domestic matter, one cannot completely disregard its existence. A rise in such sentiments today could mean something grave for European politics tomorrow. With politicians like Orban already in power and others like Robert Fico preparing to come into power, pro-kremlin foreign policy might become a dilemma for the European Union. 

In addition to this the right wing populist party in Austria, the Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), has been cautious in expressing its views on the Russian invasion so that it does not appear as an outright supporter of Russia. There is a sentiment too that the European policy towards Russia is not in everyone’s favour and that it was carried out without the consent of the people. As a result, The EU is blamed for the economic insecurity and deteriorating condition that Austrian people have to face. Keeping in mind that Austria has also gone back to importing Russian gas, the country remains on the radar for possible future alliance with the Kremlin. Such instances seem insignificant but could raise serious questions about the political state of Europe and the teetering face of unity that the EU presents. 

If not addressed and dealt with on time these states could potentially have a spillover effect on neighbouring countries, if that is the case Europe might have to deal with member countries not abiding by the values and principles of liberal democracies. Such fragmentation within Europe would not only be a matter of concern for other member countries but also a way forward for Russia. The Kremlin has previously used divisions within Europe to its own advantage. Had the annexation of Crimea in 2014 been addressed with proper rigour and force, Russia would have reconsidered invading Ukraine. It comes down to why Putin was able to plan a militarised invasion? Whether the EU was strong enough in its opposition or not? If Europe is not serious about the disunity, Russia would use that to its full advantage. This not only means that the current war would be prolonged but also that other avenues of disruption and conflict would be explored by Russia. 

Fatima Nawaz

Research Intern 

The Pakistan Institute of International Affairs (PIIA)