The Trans-Afghan Railway aims to connect Uzbekistan and Pakistan via Afghanistan. The idea for this venture was discussed for many years, but the assignment had never been realized by observing the unstable situation of Afghanistan. However, after the withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan, it has become stable to some extent, so there is a growing interest to have trade opportunities between Central Asia and South Asia. The proposed railway project holds notable prospects for enhancing railway links from Uzbekistan to Pakistan through Pakistan, facilitating economic, security and stability in the region. However, it requires dealing with multiple challenges. These include the tough mountainous topography, managing the complexities of political uncertainty in Afghanistan, security and the lack of sufficient funding.
On 18 July 2023, the trilateral working groups from the three countries had a meeting in Islamabad. They agreed to finalise the Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan (UAP) railway project. The project would start from Termez in Uzbekistan to connect Afghanistan and Pakistan by Mazar-i-Sharif and Logar and the Kharlachi border point in the Kurram region. The project was earlier planned to enter Pakistani territory through the Torkham border in the province of Nangarhar, but later it was decided to add the Kharlachi border.
This railway link has prospects to enable effortless travel of people and goods between regions, which is expected to promote trade and economic growth. The easier movement would be substantial to reduce the cost of transporting goods between Central and South Asia. It would bring the attraction of new markets for businesses in both regions. According to the Ministry of Railways, the UAP railway project will boost regional trade and transit among joining countries along with the promotion of people-to-people networks in the region.
Furthermore, the proposed rail line has the potential to shift Uzbekistan’s status from a doubly landlocked country to land-linked with the Indian Ocean. Unquestionably, Uzbekistan sees Pakistan as a more suitable partner than its alternatives for trade with other countries; precisely, Iran with economic sanctions and Turkmenistan with additional border inspections, transit tariffs, costs and delays. It is believed that this project will reduce the delivery time of goods to Pakistan by about five days and transport costs by less than 40 per cent. Moreover, economists have evaluated that the cost of a container for transportation from Tashkent to Karachi can be around 1400-1600 US dollars, which is half the price of transporting from Tashkent to Bandar Abbas, 2600-3000 US dollars.
Presently, trade between South Asia and the Central Asian States (CARs) is limited, majorly due to the absence of proper connectivity. The Trans-Afghan Railway project can be a point to provide enough opportunity to achieve extensive trade in the above mentioned regions. It could be able to transmit around 15 million tons of cargo every year on the route of the Trans-Afghan Railway. This plan would not only bring trade opportunities, but rather it could bring expectedly, 5 million jobs along the route by accessing cheaper and easier trade.
Challenges in realising the Trans-Afghan Railway
It is not a realistic approach to execute Trans-Afghan Railway Project without considering the complexities, one of the most significant ones is security. Afghanistan’s internal situation is unstable, and there are serious threats to the initiative. It could be targeted by different militias and insurgents residing inside Afghanistan. Under the Taliban government, Afghanistan looks a bit more peaceful, since the withdrawal of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), but still, there are different kinds of insurgencies.
The Islamic State – Khorasan Province (ISIS) posed direct threats by carrying out several operations in the provinces of Kabul and Herat. This could posture a thoughtful barrier to the progress of the Trans-Afghan Railway Project, chiefly through mountainous and difficult terrain. Besides, the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is pursuing military operations against the Pakistani government, which could be another danger to the successful execution of the project.
Additionally, the railway line would pass through the most challenging pass, known as the Salang Pass, which is located at an altitude of 3,500 metres. It makes it the highest railway in the world. This Pass is vulnerable to heavy snowfall in the winter, which could restrict the railway for a long time. Further, the difference in gauges used by the three countries: Uzbekistan 1,520 mm, Pakistan 1,676 mm, and Afghanistan 1,435 mm are not to be ignored, as it could limit the efficiency of transportation times.
Another considerable challenge is the cost of the project. The railway is expected to cost a huge amount of money, estimated to be around eight billion US dollars. This is a huge amount of money for the three countries. Currently, Tashkent, Kabul and Islamabad are not economically strong to have this burden. Simultaneously, there is uncertainty for the investors to invest as third countries; they know that the situation of Afghanistan is unstable and mishaps could be expected.
Above all, the de facto government of the Taliban in Afghanistan is not broadly recognised in the world. As a result, international interest is absent. The Russian Railways, World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the Islamic Development Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank were asked to fund, but it was not successful.
The Trans-Afghan Railway Project has the potential to be a significant development for the region in general and Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan in particular, which would be more specific to economy, and security. However, past examples are not encouraging the present scheme, especially security and lack of international interests. It is still not clear who will take the burden to fund the entire project. So, it should be rationally analysed with pragmatic solutions to the challenges. Possible solutions can be establishing a mutually agreed forum of the three countries, to deal with challenges, whether it is the issue of funding or security. Similarly, it is crucial to develop integrated corridor management mechanisms to expedite the coordination between the railway authorities and stakeholders.
Irfan Amir is a Research Assistant at The Pakistan Institute of International Affairs
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