Election Year 2024: Implications for International Community

The Pakistan Institute of International Affairs (PIIA) organized a seminar on Election Year 2024: Implications for International Community, on Tuesday, 23rd January 2024 at 4.00 p.m. in the Library of the Institute. Speakers: * Ambassador (R) Mustafa Kamal Kazi, former Ambassador of Pakistan to Russia, The Netherlands, Indonesia and Iraq, and Pakistan’s Permanent Representative to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) * Dr. Maria Sultan, Chairperson and President, South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SASSI) University. She is adviser to the Ministry of Defence on Strategic and Military Affairs.

Plight of stranded Pakistanis in Dhaka and billions in frozen fund

Pakistan has not been able to learn anything from the secession of East Pakistan as it still continues to follow the same policies and methods that led to the country’s disintegration on 16 December 1971, particularly the unequal distribution of resources and authoritarian as well as repressive attitude towards ethnolinguistic diversity in the country. 

The country also needs to recover funds of billions of rupees meant for the repatriation of stranded Pakistanis in Bangladesh, that lie in the Habib Bank Limited and had been frozen by the United States over allegations of terror financing after 9/11. 

These view were expressed by speakers at a seminar titled “The East Pakistan tragedy: contemporary concerns,” organised by the Pakistan Institute of International Affairs (PIIA) at its library here on Saturday. 

Speaking on the occasion, PIIA chairperson Dr Masuma Hasan said the separation of East Pakistan from West Pakistan was a monumental catastrophe which happened due to various factors that had accumulated over the past many years and that the effects of that tragedy had lingered on till this time.

Addressing the key issues that led to the separation of East Pakistan, Executive Director of Institute of Business Administration (IBA) Karachi Dr S. Akbar Zaidi said the country was doomed from the beginning as West Pakistan had prejudice and racism against Bengalis. 

They were looked down upon on the basis of colour and height and were kept marginalised, he added. 

Dr Moonis Ahmar, meritorious professor at the department of International Relations and former dean faculty of social sciences at the University of Karachi, highlighted the plight of stranded Pakistanis in Bangladesh, who are languishing in camps for decades. 

He said there were 66 camps in Bangladesh where thousands of ‘forgotten’ Pakistanis were living in a poor condition for the past 52 years as Pakistan had failed to repatriate them. 

He said efforts had been made to bring them back but those efforts were not successful. In 1988, the government of Pakistan took an important step and established a fund for the repatriation and rehabilitation of the stranded Pakistanis in Bangladesh with the help of The Muslim World League, an international Islamic NGO, Dr Ahmar said. 

However, that process was stopped and the fund of millions of rupees — now in the Habib Bank Limited and has multiplied over the years into billions of rupees — was frozen by the United States over allegations that it would allegedly be used in terror financing, he added. 

He said the people stranded there also complained that Pakistan accepted millions of Afghan as well as Bengali refugees, but they, the loyal Pakistanis, remained forgotten. 

The way out now was that the frozen funds be taken out and utilised to repatriate the stranded Pakistanis, or, if that’s not possible, to help them provide an honourable way of living in Bangladesh with equal rights and citizenship, Dr Ahmar suggested. 

Addressing fault lines in Pakistan’s nation building experiment, Dr Farhan Hanif Siddiqi, director and associate professor at the School of Politics and International Relations, Quaid-i-Azam University, said nation building was mostly seen and practiced in Pakistan, as was many other countries, as manufacturing homogeneity, or unity, through hegemonic practices, in which cultures, myths, symbols, and histories were manufactured with the intention of homogenising social and ethnic diversity in the service of nation building. He said:

But this is where the problem lies because ethnic identities and social diversity are denied and suppressed in such hegemonic practices.

He added that all this had been happening in Pakistan since its inception and contributed mainly to its disintegration. 

Therefore, he said, Pakistan needed to normalise diversity, multilingualism and multiculturalism and it was high time that these problems were addressed. 

He said it was very important for a country to be self-reflecting and self-critical for the purpose of nation building but such was not the case with Pakistan as the political leaders and establishment of the country always shifted the blame onto others and never accepted criticism. 

Dr Farhan also said that in Pakistan, the issue of majoritarianism had also become a major challenge where the majority was afraid of monitories and tried to keep them suppressed. 

Zafar Shafique, member of the council of PIIA and CEO of Paradise International Group of Companies, discussed the economic effects on companies, institutes and people after the fall of Dhaka. 

He said Pakistan faced various economic problems after the secession. There was industrial and economic disruption, loss of employment and termination of international contracts, all resulting in severe loss of profit.

Published in Dawn 17 December 2023

Yash Kumar: Geopolitical Challenges and Natural Resource Dilemmas and the Struggle for Economic Prosperity in Pakistan

Introduction:

Despite being bestowed with enormous resources including coal, copper, gold, human resource and access to vast ocean, Pakistan has failed to harness the benefits, its resources could offer to boost its economy. Although, there have been numerous causes behind its ill performance in utilization of its natural resources in national prosperity but geographical factors contribute the most to it. First of all, being located at the heart of hostile neighbors particularly, India and Afghanistan, it has been compelled to divert its attention on its security. Moreover, by virtue of its proximity with China and being in vicinity of Russia it has remained as transit route for global powers for their vested interests. Its mountainous terrain, climate change vulnerability, poor infrastructural development, instable region, terrorism and growing population have turned what could be a geographical blessing into geographical curse. Resultantly, Pakistan is suffering at every front which has hindered the economic prosperity by hijacking its upward flight.

Pakistan a land rich in resources: An Overview

“While history has been very unkind to Pakistan, its geography has been its greatest benefits” {Stephen Phillips Cohen}

Pakistan is a land of natural resources, its four provinces provide a vivid landscape and vast minerals, underneath their respective land. It has been a fourth populous country with more than sixty percent population below the age of 30 years. For instance, Balochistan encompasses dry terrain and covers one of the largest reserves of Gold, Copper, coal and other precious metals in the areas of Chaghi, Rekodik, Mach, Naushki and Dalbandin. Similarly, this provinces became the first to equip Pakistan with energy resources like gas from Sui in 1952.

Moreover, Sindh accounts as a vibrant land for agriculture and is endowed with world 9th largest coal reserves in Tharparkar. Likewise the Kirthar range is also known to be house of gypsum, limestone and other minerals. Besides, Sindh nowadays is the key indigenous source of gas for domestic use of entire Pakistan. Also, these two provinces make vast 1046km coast line that opens it to world and blue economy from south.

Simultaneously, Punjab and KPK are the house of salt, marble and precious stones respectively. Overall, Pakistan geography is blessed with the golden sparrow which has been restricted by its very neighbors and its overall mismanagement.

Geographical Factors hindering the utilization of natural resources in national prosperity.

Pakistan and its Neighboring Countries a) Surrounded by hostile and uneven neighbors:

Pakistan located at the crossroads of Asia is connecting point for entire region. It can open the landlocked Central Asian Republics to the world and provide the shortest route to enhance connectivity. Similarly, its multitude of natural resources can also get way to world`s market, fulfil indigenous requirements and boost Pakistan`s economy; however, this geo-political potential and endowment of natural resources are yet to be exploited to attain sustainable development. As this very geography is hindering the utilization of natural resources and strategic location in achieving the peace and prosperity.

Indian evil aspirations and destabilizing tactics against Pakistan:

India has been the focal point for foreign policy of Pakistan, Sardar Patel right after independence remarked that ‘Pakistan will crawl back to rejoin India’ and India since then has been lobbying against Pakistan and has diverted its attention towards security and defense of the state. Moreover, India is sponsoring terrorism and igniting separatist elements particularly in the province of Balochistan which is land of hidden treasure. Balochistan`s Gawadar a deep sea port is golden sparrow to make Pakistan a transit hub for entire region. But India`s destabilizing tactics which have been substantiated by the arrest of Indian Naval officer spying and financing terrorism in Balochistan.

Unstable Afghanistan: a Pandora box of regional instability:

Afghanistan, the western neighbor has also been a key hurdle in exploitation of natural resources. Afghanistan’s destabilization has always preoccupied Pakistan with plethora of other socio-economic ills including Kilashankov culture, smuggling of narcotics, and disturbance in social fabric, refugee crisis, terrorism, and security concerns. Similarly, the ripples of Afghanistan conundrum and its instability have incurred huge cost on Pakistan. By

virtue of being Afghanistan’s neighbor Pakistan was left with no option by the USA but to be front ally in global war against terror resulting in a complete mess in social, economic and political terms.

Transit hub for cold war rivals:

This location has always served as the transit route for global powers, during the time of British India, this location was considered pivotal for great game in between Soviet Russia and British. Simultaneously, after independence the cold war rivals the USA and Russia stuck here when Washington joined hands with Pakistan to push the red army back in Afghanistan. Overall, this location besides being land of opportunities has also been an open ground for global players to contend for their vested interest but in disguise it has left Pakistan to lag behind in prosperity.

Sanctioned Iran: a bottleneck towards connectivity:

Iran on western southern west is a fluctuating friend, although we enjoy good relations with infrequent border clashes but Iran being under strict sanctions of West has been a hurdle in attaining a sustainable connectivity and interdependence towards Europe. Hence, this unsound Iran has been matter of concern and has diverted Pakistan’s attention from harnessing its resources to improve its economy.

Giant China: An opportunity under surveillance of west:

There is no denying fact that China is all-weather friend and a great contributor to Pakistan’s economy. This rising superpower has always stood by with Pakistan in every situation, the launch of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is nothing but a lifeline for Pakistan’s economy. It offers win-win situation to both and has the potential to uplift Pakistan status by making it a transit route for entire Asia. However, the USA and India having their nefarious designs against China’s rise have been propagating propaganda against CPEC by naming it debt trap. Similarly, the separatist elements are ignited in the province of Balochistan to sabotage the progress on this giant project

Climate change vulnerable country:

Pakistan is among top climate change vulnerable countries, it has witnessed more than 152 extreme weather events since the turn of 21st century. The mega floods of 2010, heat waves of 2015-16 and super floods of 2022 are instances in point; besides, droughts, famine, locust attacks, glacial melts, erratic rains, low yield, sea-erosion, water scarcity have been norm of day. Overall this hydra-headed monster has diverted Pakistan’s resources to unwanted and unpredictable events for which Pakistan has been unable to invest in exploitation of natural resources subsequently lagging behind in national prosperity

Mountainous terrain: An infrastructural deficit:

The landscape of Pakistan is characterized by formidable mountainous terrain surrounded by Himalaya, Karakoram, Hindukush and Takt-Sulaiman range where these majestic peaks contribute the breathtaking beauty of the country, they also present significant challenges in unraveling the mysteries of nature in exploitation of natural resources. Moreover, this has been unfortunate that Pakistan has been unable to establish a viable infrastructure throughout the country resulting in inability of Pakistan in utilization of its untapped resources for economic growth.

Terrorism and Security concerns:

The menace of terrorism has hit Pakistan hard. The rise of non-state actors and their subsequent presence in Afghanistan and free movement through porous Durand line. The fight against terrorism has cost Pakistan billion and thousands of innocents hence, security has been the prime concern and a lot of resources are being exhausted to curb this. Consequently, Pakistan has been distracted from the path of industrialization, and resource extraction rather because of this danger the existing industry is shifting abroad.

Over-population a time ticking bomb:

Pakistan’s population has grown considerably and it has been fourth populous country with no infrastructure, pitiable industrial sector, poor governance and lack of employment opportunities. This rapidly growing population has been a liability on already depleting resources and Pakistan has been pre-occupied with accommodating this huge population and is unable to explore and exploit new resources to cut on its imports and increase exports. This has given birth to new spiral of deficits.

Power mess in Indian ocean: A coastal liability

Indian Ocean is in the south of Pakistan and according to Zbigniew Brezezinski ‘An arc of crisis stretches along the shores of the Indian Ocean’ it is because big powers are eyeing to the untapped resources and key chock points of Indian Ocean and the great game of Indian Ocean is already in play. India in Indo-pacific Strategy of the USA has been signified as the strategic partner to contain China and the militarization of Indian Ocean by activating Quadrilateral Security Dialogue and AUKUS has been a security concern for Pakistan. The campaign of empowering India against China has been a serious security concern increasing the security dilemma pushing Pakistan towards arms race to ensure its security. Hence, with these state of affairs the power mess in Indian Ocean has been a coastal liability for Pakistan.

Deconstructing the concept of geographical curse with respect to Pakistan: A Critical perspective.

There is no denying the fact that Pakistan could use its geography as a boon and could be among top performing economies of the world keeping in view its geostrategic location. Pakistan holding the crown of being a junction point between the resource-efficient and resource-deficient countries in the South Asian region. However this has not been the case the geostrategic location has been turned out to be geographical curse and Pakistan has been the prisoner of its own geography. The nefarious designs and porous borders in the east and west of country preoccupied it badly and posed serious existential threats distracting it from attain the path to sustainable development by utilizing its enormous natural resources for its national prosperity.

Conclusion

To conclude, states can change their friends and foes but they cannot change their neighbors. Similarly, Pakistan is a potential country, a critical juncture for connecting the Asian region and opening the gates of interdependence between the energy haves and energy have-nots and offer its own vast natural resources including gold, coal, copper, and precious minerals to secure not only economic gains but also sustainable peace and prosperity.

However, evil intentions of surrounding countries particularly India and Afghanistan and continuous instability in the latter states has caused huge losses to Pakistan and have redirected entire attention towards security and defense of borders. Resultantly, this very geography has been a curse as Pakistan is helpless to fully exploit its resources and is heavily engaged in security and diplomacy related issues.

Yash Kumar, Research Assistant, PIIA

PIIA Seminar on Hybrid Warfare: New Threats and Complexities for Pakistan

Security experts and social scientists have agreed that the growing advancement of technology has changed the mediums of conventional threats and it’s time for the country to develop skills and manpower using the latest technologies and aligning itself with the latest trends to meet emerging challenges especially in the context of future hybrid wars.

They shared these views while speaking at a seminar on ‘Hybrid Warfare: New Threats and Complexities for Pakistan’ organised by the Pakistan Institute of International Affairs (PIIA) in its library on Saturday.

“Terrorist attacks to subvert economic growth are on the cards of our enemies. Our armed forces and law enforcement agencies have bravely fought and are fighting against terrorism, but now we need to adjust our sails using the latest technologies and align ourselves with the latest trends,” said former additional director general of the Federal Investigation Agency and founder of Digital Pakistan Ammar Jaffri.

Speaking on the topic ‘Cyber security for the national security of Pakistan, he said: “Due to its geopolitical importance, Pakistan is subject to multiple grey zone threats. The enemy through constant propaganda campaigns is trying to portray Pakistan as a state which is responsible for sponsoring militancy and terrorism in the region. A discriminatory attitude was observed in the FATF where despite fulfilling most of the conditions, the country was still included in the grey list. After August 15, 2021, when the Taliban took control of Kabul, even the failure of Ashraf Ghani was being attributed to Pakistan. Despite acting as a facilitator of peace in Afghanistan, Pakistan is being doubted and projected in a bad light.”

“The new trends of fake/deep fake and disinformation/crimes on social media needs trained manpower in digital forensics. Future hybrid wars will be based on emerging technologies, which require trained manpower with demand-driven skills and first-hand knowledge of the latest trends of cyber warfare. Digital media is today more powerful than print and electronic media. Artificial intelligence has the power to make humans think what machines want them to understand,” he said.

Speaking about ‘Economic coercion as an instrument of hybrid war in the case of Pakistan’, the Principal of the School of Social Sciences and Humanities at NUST, Islamabad, Dr Ashfaque Hasan Khan, who joined the moot online, also said that the concept of war has changed from conventional to non-conventional.

“Economy is now the new battlefield. The main objective of this strategy is to incapacitate the ability of the country to strengthen its national security through weakening of economy, institutions and governance capacity. In the non-kinetic domain, economic warfare forms an important component of hybrid war,” the noted economist said. He pointed out:

The erosion of economic strength of any country is perhaps the most important element and likely the hardest to reverse once it is accomplished

Pakistan has the distinction of being the only nuclear power, which has sought financial support from the International Monetary Fund with great regularity. Since its inception, Pakistan has gone to the IMF 22 times, but from 1988 it has gone there 18 times. Barring four years [2004-2008], Pakistan has been taking the same medicine from the same doctor for 33 years in a row and with each passing day, Pakistan’s economic health has continued to deteriorate

We must realise that economic warfare has been imposed on us. We are in a hybrid war. We must say no to the IMF programme. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is a great potential to keep Pakistan away from the IMF programme.

Adviser at the Centre for Strategic and Contemporary Research, Islamabad, retired Lt Gen Naeem Khalid Lodhi, was also present virtually and spoke about ‘How to fight back in the hybrid environment’. He said that it is better to first understand the nature and purpose of warfare. 

“The actual and primary target here are the decision-makers. The second target is the youth,” he said, adding that tools are important if you want to fight back. “Without the wherewithal you can’t fight back,” he said.

“To fight the intricate war with finesse, you need a special force. Right now all think tanks are saying that we are in a hybrid war, but no one there talks about how to fight the war. A reinforced national security advisory secretariat needs to be revived and be directly responsible for planning how to fight this peculiar nature of war. They must combine under one roof all the requisite expertise to report directly to the prime minister, and give him continuous feedback,” he said.

PIIA Chairperson Dr Masuma Hasan also spoke.

Published in Dawn, 27 February 2023

The Round Table: The Commonwealth Journal of International Affairs

Video Footage of our 75th Anniversary Conference: Pakistan and the Changing Global Order: Day One Sessions

PIIA Conference: Climate change can pose existential threat to Pakistan, CM

In our landmark 75th Anniversary Conference, Sindh Chief Minister Syed Murad Ali Shah explained that Pakistan is strategically situated on the map of the world on Pakistan and the Changing Global Order in the PC Hotel, so it has a significant role to play in international politics.

“With access to the Arabian Sea, its Gwadar Port is important to Pakistan due to its prime location. It’s also important to China, Pakistan’s all-weather friend that has made massive investments to provide world-class facilities of docking at the port, thereby increasing the existing economic and strategic interdependence between the two countries.”

The Sindh CM stated this on Wednesday while speaking our 75th Anniversary Conference on Pakistan and the Changing Global Order. The CM said that climate change could be an existential threat to countries like Pakistan. “Overflowing rivers, melting sea ice, food insecurities — all are threatening our future and creating new tensions among competing powers in the world,” he said, adding that experts were now studying the convergence of climate change and national security.

He said that in recent years they had seen the shift of geopolitical power from the West to the East, and had witnessed the rise of Asia, especially through ASEAN, a resilient Africa, and more importantly, China with its expanding outreach through its Belt and Road Initiative.

He said the PIIA through its conference had put on the table every issue of contemporary importance in the changing global order, as the moot would be addressed by a galaxy of scholars and diplomats from Pakistan and abroad.

He added that it was a good decision that the subject related to peace in the fluid global order would be issued at the end of the conference. “The changing world order will take time to find a new equilibrium,” he said.

The CM said that the world was mired in conflicts and divisions for reasons which were historical and geographical. “Hence, a concerted approach to all issues and challenges within and outside Pakistan is the need of the hour,” he suggested.

“We ourselves are beneficiaries of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor [CPEC], which will bring vast economic benefits to our country,” he said, adding that CPEC highlighted the significance of the development of the Gwadar Port for the economy of Pakistan.

The CM said that Pakistan’s own region was beset with unsettled issues. “The unresolved Kashmir issue and the unrelenting brutality of the Indian government against the Kashmiri people is a cause of universal concern,” he said, adding that their suffering continued unabated and so did their resolve to decide their own future.

Shah said that stability in Afghanistan was a challenge for all players in the region. “Pakistan faces its own challenges not only of border security but also of water and food security,” he said.

He told the audience that Pakistan was the fifth largest country in the world in terms of population, and had been an active and progressive power on the world stage. He said that in the changing global order, it was one of the nine declared nuclear powers. “It’s a responsible nuclear power that has always used nuclear energy for peaceful purposes,” he added.

Even as a young nation, Pakistan stood by countries struggling against colonial rule and lobbied for their independence from their colonial masters, the CM said. He added that it is a member of many treaties dealing with support to developing and least developed countries and humanitarian laws. Pakistan is one of the foremost providers of peacekeepers to United Nations forces, he pointed out.

He also said that Pakistan was a member of intergovernmental organisations such as the Organisation for Islamic Cooperation, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.

The CM said that he was glad that the PIIA conference addressed the issue of climate change. “Many countries of the world, including Pakistan, which is not responsible for the emerging climate catastrophe, are afflicted with the effects of climate change,” he said, adding that experts were now studying the convergence of climate change and national security.

The CM said that climate change had ravaged the country during the recent massive flooding. “Bringing relief to people displaced by the floods and made homeless has been a major challenge for my government. But we have put our hearts and souls into the efforts to retrieve their homes and livelihoods and to rehabilitate them,” he added.

Shah said that his government had been a leading force in enacting progressive legislation in many spheres. “We have given legal protection to women, the minorities, the marginalised and children,” he said, adding that over the last few years the Sindh government had adopted many pro-women laws.

According to the CM, Sindh is the first province to enact a law against domestic violence, ‘The Domestic Violence (Prevention and Protection) Act, 2013’, and the landmark ‘The Sindh Child Marriages Restraint Act, 2013’. The provincial chief executive hoped that the recommendations of the conference would help in the formulating of policies which could help resolve the contemporary world problems.

‘Dissolving PA at whim’

Talking to media persons after attending the conference, Shah said the constitution does empower the chief executive of a province to dissolve the provincial assembly, but such a power can only be exercised in extreme conditions as described in the constitution.

The CM said the constitution did not grant unbridled powers to the chief executive of a province to dissolve the PA at his whim just for creating a political or constitutional crisis or void in the country.

“There’s definitely a provision in the constitution empowering a chief minister to dissolve the assembly, but it shouldn’t be the case that a CM one fine morning wakes up from sleep and all of a sudden makes up his mind to take such an action or else he decides to dissolve the assembly after being asked so by someone else for creating a political crisis in the country,” he said.

He told the media persons that the constitution did define the circumstances in which a CM could take the extreme action of dissolving the PA. These conditions are: either the CM thinks he is unable to govern in the province and run its affairs as per the constitution or he has lost the confidence of the majority of the members of the assembly.

He hoped that the CMs of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa also very well knew that the assembly could only be dissolved in such circumstances. Shah, however, said that no constitutional crisis would be created in the country if the CM of a province decided to dissolve the PA.

The Sindh CM hoped that better sense would prevail and no CM would opt for the dissolving of his assembly before the completion of its tenure. “If in case an assembly is dissolved, there won’t be any issue for us because we’ll contest the elections,” he said.

Replying to a question, the CM maintained that the official plane of the Sindh government had not been used to bring the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s imprisoned Senator Azam Khan Swati to the province.

He said the concerned political stakeholders should sit together to find solutions to serious economic problems faced by the country due to a number of global factors.

Responding to another query, he agreed that the natural gas shortage faced by the industries of Karachi was a major issue, as it could lead to the closure of industrial units and increase joblessness in the province. The chief minister said that he was in touch with the relevant federal authorities to get the issue resolved at the earliest.

Dr Reeza Hameed: Parliament’s role in electing the President

When the Office became vacant, on 13 July 2022, Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled from Sri Lanka under cover of darkness to an unknown destination. Even before his departure he had been in hiding. On the day he left, the country was informed that Gotabaya Rajapaksa had appointed Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe as his stand-in during his absence abroad. The reason that Gotabaya Rajapaksa gave for the appointment was that by virtue of his absence abroad he was unable to discharge the powers, duties, and functions of his office. In fact, it was clear to everyone that he was unable to function as President even before he went abroad. On 9 July, he fled his official residence to some location unknown to the general public. He went abroad because he was unable to function in his office. This was the actual reason as to why Gotabaya Rajapaksa had appointed Ranil Wickremesinghe. Hence, the appointment does not fit in with Article 37(1) and is constitutionally questionable.

A vacancy occurred before 13 July by virtue of Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s desertion from office. By vacating his office, he would be deemed to have resigned from office on 11 July causing a vacancy to arise under Article 38(b) as of that date. When a deemed resignation occurs, it would be futile if not absurd to require a formal letter of resignation. The Constitution provides, by Article 40, that where the office of President becomes vacant in terms of Article 38 (1) of the Constitution, Parliament shall elect as President one of its members who is qualified for election to the office of President, to hold office for the unexpired period of the term of office of the President vacating office.

The formal resignation that Gotabaya Rajapaksa promised to send on 13 July came in only on 14 July but even before that, by 11 July, Parliament had been acting as if there was in fact a vacancy. Following upon a meeting of the party leaders on 11 July 2022, without waiting for the letter of resignation to arrive, the Speaker issued a statement announcing that nominations for the next president will be presented to parliament on 19 July, and a vote will be taken on 20 July 2022.When on 13 July Gotabaya Rajapaksa appointed the Prime Minister to act for him, he had already left that office and was powerless to appoint anyone to act in his place. In lawyer’s parlance, he was functus officio.

Parliament is an electoral body

When the office of the President becomes vacant, Parliament will elect a President in terms of Article 38 (1) of the Constitution and in accordance with the provisions of the Presidential Elections (Special Provisions) Act No. 2 of 1981. Section 2 of the 1981 Act states: “The provisions of this Act shall apply when the office of President shall become vacant in terms of Article 38 (1) of the Constitution.” 

Section 4 of the Act states: “The occurrence of a vacancy in the office of President shall … operate as a summoning of Parliament to meet within three days of such occurrence.” The Secretary-General of Parliament shall inform the members of Parliament of the date and time fixed for such meeting.

It is the Secretary General of Parliament, not the Speaker, who is responsible for conducting the election, functioning as the Returning Officer. 

Parliament meeting to elect a president is not a legislative body exercising legislative power. It is an electoral body with the members of Parliament acting as delegates of the people. As delegates, they are bound to give effect to the wishes of the people. The people must be able to voice their wishes and give them instructions with regard to the choice of candidates and voting. The people must have a say in what their delegates will do on the polling day, and this requires the process to be open and transparent. 

Amenable to Court’s Jurisdiction

The proceedings in Parliament relating to the election of the President are amenable to the jurisdiction of the Courts. The 1981 Act specifies the circumstances in which they may give rise to proceedings before courts. 

Bribery and undue influence

Parliament when it enacted the 1981 Act was concerned that corruption could taint an election. This is evident from the provisions in the Act making every person who commits the act of undue influence of bribery guilty of an offence. A person convicted by a Magistrate may be liable to a fine not exceeding five hundred rupees or to imprisonment of either description for a term not exceeding six months or to both such fine and such imprisonment. 

The Act prohibits and penalises such conduct to ensure that the election does not turn out as an auction giving the seat to the highest bidder. The Act further provides a remedy to challenge an election if there is proof of bribery or undue influence. 

The Act allows a candidate or a member of Parliament to challenge the result in the Supreme Court on any of the grounds specified in section 19 of the Act. The grounds on which such a challenge may proceed are: 

that the offence of bribery or undue influence at the election has been committed by the candidate who has been returned or by any person with the knowledge and on behalf of the candidate who has been returned; or 

that the result of the election has been materially affected

by reason that the offence of bribery or undue influence at the election has been committed by any person who is neither the candidate who has been returned nor a person acting with his knowledge and on his behalf; or

by the improper reception or refusal of a vote, or

by any non-compliance with the provisions of the Constitution or of this Act; or

that the nomination of any candidate has been wrongly rejected.

An election petition may be presented by any candidate at such election or by any member of Parliament. It may be presented at any time after the date of publication of the declaration of the result, but not later than thirty days from the date of such publication.

As Parliament in electing a President will not be functioning as Parliament stricto sensu but as an electoral body discharging a statutory function, breaches of any of the duties under the Act may be enforced by invoking the fundamental rights jurisdiction of the Supreme Court under Article 126 of the constitution and the writ jurisdiction of the Court of Appeal under Article 141 of the constitution. Such proceedings could for instance arise if upon a vacancy arising the Secretary General fails to take any of the steps, he must take under the 1981 Act. 

Evidence of proceedings in Parliament may be produced before the courts in those proceedings. The provision in the Parliamentary Privileges Act, that proceedings in Parliament shall not be impeached or questioned in any court or place out of Parliament, has no application to the proceedings before the courts. 

In lieu of a conclusion

The main parties have been engaging in negotiations behind closed doors giving the impression that the people have nothing to do with the election that is to take place. They should take the public into their confidence and inform the public about the discussions they have been having and the vision they have as to the future. They should also pay heed to the voice of the people.

A president in hiding is no president

Dr Reeza Hameed: The fact that he has to go into hiding in an unknown country is an indication that he cannot rely on his own service chiefs to guarantee his safety. Gotabaya Rajapaksa has effectively made himself a lame duck of a President

The popular uprising against the Rajapaksa regime started with the demand for the resignation of President Rajapaksa and the then Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa. Mahinda Rajapaksa to his credit saw the writing on the wall and quit, but Gotabaya Rajapaksa did not. The President appointed MP Ranil Wickremesinghe who entered Parliament through the nominated list to fill the vacancy caused by Mahinda Rajapaksa’s resignation, inviting the people’s ire against Ranil Wickremesinghe as well. The people took to the streets on 9 July demanding the resignation of both Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Ranil Wickremesinghe storming the President’s House and the Presidential Secretariat. Gotabaya Rajapaksa went into hiding. 

In the meantime, as was reported, the party leaders met to reach agreement on finding a replacement for Gotabaya Rajapaksa whose resignation was expected on 13 July. Gotabaya Rajapaksa did not resign on 13 July as he had promised. On that day, the Speaker made an announcement that Gotabaya Rajapaksa had left to a nearby country and that Gotabaya Rajapaksa, acting under Art 37(1) of the Constitution, had appointed the Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe to act for him. 

Moreover, according to a BBC report of Monday 11 July, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe’s office said in a statement it had been informed by Mr Rajapaksa that he would step down on Wednesday 13 July. The Speaker told the BBC on Monday 11 July that the President had left Sri Lanka and was in a nearby country and that the latter would submit his resignation on 13 July. The Speaker later retracted his statement made to the BBC that the President had left the island.

Under Article 37(1) the President may appoint the Prime Minister to exercise the powers, duties, and functions of his office. He may make the appointment if he “is of the opinion that by reason of illness, absence from Sri Lanka or any other cause he will be unable to” exercise them himself. An appointment under this article of the constitution does not result in his resignation. For a vacancy to arise under Article 38(1) of the constitution, the President will have to tender his resignation from his office in writing to the Speaker. Instead of sending his resignation, he has absconded. 

Appointment has to be temporary

The appointment of Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe as acting President was by a gazette extraordinary No 2288/19 of 13 July 2022. 

The gazette extraordinary gives the President’s reason for the appointment as “my absence from Sri Lanka” and that Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe will exercise the powers duties and functions of the office of President “during such period of my absence from Sri Lanka.” The word “period” carries with it the notion of a length of time. The phrase “during such period” implies that the appointment has to be time specific, but there is no mention in the gazette extraordinary of the period for which the appointment has been made; “absence from Sri Lanka” is the reason for the appointment, not its duration. In order for the phrase “such period” to make sense, the gazette must mention a time period. It did not.

The appointment under Article 37(1) cannot be for an indefinite duration. It must be time specific. It is meant to fill a temporary absence abroad. 

That the appointment under Article 37(1) has to be temporary is reinforced by a reading of Article 37(2) under which the Prime Minister may be appointed to act for the President if the Chief Justice is of the opinion that the President is temporarily unable to exercise the duties and functions of his office, and is unable to make an appointment under Article 37(1). In that case the Chief Justice may communicate his opinion to the Speaker, leading to the temporary appointment of the Prime Minister to act in place of the President during such period. It should follow that where the President is able to make an appointment, it should be a temporary appointment. 

Differences of opinion may arise as to what is meant by “temporary” but, if the period is not specified, it is not possible to say whether the appointment is temporary.

No one knows for certain as to where the President is now or for how long he would be away from the country. The president of the country simply can not go away indefinitely, even if he appoints another to act in his place. His whereabouts cannot be a secret.

Gotabaya Rajapaksa has deserted his office and made himself incapable of exercising the duties and functions of his office. By his own admission, by going abroad, he has rendered himself unable to perform the functions of his office. In any other situation, a person who goes into hiding and is not available to discharge his functions would be deemed to have vacated his office. 

By going into hiding the President has intentionally violated the constitution. Going into hiding is not one of the reasons for making an appointment under Article 37(1).

It is not known whether, and if so when, Gotabaya Rajapaksa would return to Sri Lanka. It is possible that the President may not return to Sri Lanka at all during the term of his office, as a member of the United Kingdom Parliament has on 13 July called for an international arrest warrant to be issued for the arrest of Gotabaya Rajapaksa. 

In the final analysis, a president is required to be physically present in Sri Lanka to be able to effectively perform the functions of his office. He was elected to office, and the mandate given to him by the electorate is personal.

He is responsible to Parliament for the due exercise of the powers, duties, and functions of his office. As a member of the cabinet, he must attend cabinet meetings to discuss and decide on important matters of government policy. He has taken an oath of office to uphold the constitution, and that oath is not suspended, simply because he has appointed someone to act for him. 

He cannot discharge his responsibilities under the constitution by laying on his back somewhere nobody knows or by sitting behind a laptop. The fact that he has to go into hiding in an unknown country is an indication that he cannot rely on his own service chiefs to guarantee his safety. Gotabaya Rajapaksa has effectively made himself a lame duck of a President.

Crisis in Sri Lanka: Lessons for Pakistan

Expert says political elite of Sri Lanka failed to reach consensus on how to run their country. Pakistan is not going to default on international loans, moot told

The Pakistan Institute of International Affairs (PIIA) organised a seminar on ‘Crisis in Sri Lanka: Lessons for Pakistan’ on Saturday. Introducing the subject, the PIIA chairperson Dr Masuma Hasan explained Sri Lanka is going through an economic crisis, which is said to be the worst crisis in the history of the country.

“There are food shortages, people are protesting. So there is both a humanitarian and political crisis. A couple of days ago, the Sri Lankan prime minister said that their economy has totally collapsed. They defaulted on their international loans,” she said, and added: “We decided to call this seminar because many here in Pakistan think that this country will follow the same pattern as Sri Lanka.” Dr S. Akbar Zaidi, the executive director of the Institute of Business Administration (IBA), Karachi, said he does not think that Pakistan was going to default on its loans. He said:

It’s highly improbable that we will … Right now the countries that have defaulted post-pandemic are Lebanon, Zambia and Sri Lanka. But here Pakistan is in an International Monetary Fund [IMF] programme, which Sri Lanka was not.

He further elaborated that Sri Lanka was a richer country than Pakistan, stating:

Poorer countries are given loans at a lower rate, but Sri Lanka was given loans on a higher rate … Still, default is not the end of the world, but it makes life very difficult as it gives way to unemployment and inflation and we are already there.

Dr Farhan Hanif Siddiqi, director and associate professor at the School of Politics and International Relations, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, said that the political system in Sri Lanka combined with ethnic and cultural issues caused a vicious cycle there. 

He also said that the political elite of Sri Lanka failed to reach consensus on how to do politics or how to run the country, which is also a big contributory factor in what is happening in Sri Lanka today.

“In 2015, their presidential system was changed into a parliamentary system. Then in 2020, they were back to the presidential system. Now, again they are calling for a parliamentary system. It does not go well with that nation,” he said.

“Even though the Tamil Tigers were defeated, the Tamil minority in Sri Lanka is an underlying problem. A younger generation might even mobilise themselves in the future. And when politics does not address the underlying conflicts, then they grow. We are facing a similar issue in our Balochistan,” he said.

Dr Jehan Perera, executive director of the National Peace Council of Sri Lanka, joined in through a video link to provide a better picture of what is going on in his country at the moment.

He said that just four years ago, Sri Lanka was called a middle-income country by the World Bank. Sri Lanka was also a great tourism destination. “But in the last three months, the value of Sri Lankan currency has fallen by 100 per cent. Now 70 per cent of our population eats less. Now, Sri Lanka is known as the seventh-most malnourished country in the world. It is being compared to Somalia.”

“In Colombo, we see enormous lines or queues for petrol and diesel at the pumps. People park their cars there for two days and more, and go home because there will be no fuel until there is supply. There is no gas to cook food. We do it on electric hot plates. The universities have been closed. Education has been shifted to online. There is a shortage of medicine even and we are thankful to Pakistan for sending us medicines. And the immediate blame for all that is happening in Sri Lanka has fallen on the current government. The people are angry. They feel terribly betrayed. They think that the country cannot import petrol, diesel, gas and medicine because it has run out of dollars. On May 9, there were riots where the people attacked the homes of ministers. It led to the resignation of the president, who was portraying himself as the king,” he said.

“The majority principal is entrenched in Sri Lanka, but we also have other groups such as the Sri Lankan Tamils and the Tamils who came here from India many years ago. They all speak Tamil, but the country’s language is Sinhala. When decisions are taken, the Sinhalese do not take the minorities into consideration. The Tamil language is spoken by three of the four communities in Sri Lanka, but the parliament made Sinhala our national language, which has also led to a sense of insecurity among the minorities. So many minorities in Sri Lanka also feel powerless as our army, too, is 95 per cent Sinhalese,” he explained.

Published in Dawn, 26 June 2022