Experts call for using predictive AI cybersecurity to thwart attacks

Pakistan is not ready for cyber warfare, PIIA conference told … those who believed their privacy remained intact in cyberspace lived in imaginary world

The conference — Artificial Intelligence (AI) for Cyber Security — was organised by the Paki­stan Institute of Interna­tional Affairs (PIIA) here.

Experts at a conference on Saturday said that the country was more than 20 years behind the world in the field of digital security and it must move forward on a very fast track by adopting predictive cybersecurity infused with Artificial Intelligence in order to have a standing in the world of information in cyberspace.

There was a consensus among speakers that awareness of cybersecurity must be spread through educational institutions, particularly universities, and webinars and seminars should be conducted to make the general public aware of the challenges.

They were also of the view that the government should also let people work freely to bring required changes in the field.

Speaking on the occasion, Ammar Hussain Jaffri, a former senior official of the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) who also headed the National Response Centre for Cyber Crime (N3RC), said that he had been working on cybersecurity for the past 20 years. He said:

When I started working in the cybercrime unit of FIA 20 years ago we were ahead of India considering the initiatives we took for cybersecurity. But right now, we are even behind the place where we were standing 20 years ago.

Pakistan has been working on reactive cybersecurity up till now, but it’s time we start looking into predictive cybersecurity, which needs to be infused with AI, where possible attacks are predicted and the results are also accurate up to 90 per cent.

He shared that through AI, they looked into the matter of fake passports and detected anomalies in the system of the National Database and Registration Authority (Nadra) where people with fake passports were entered in random family trees to have a record.

Rahim Ali, chief technology officer of an international business outsourcing firm, said that Pakistan was not ready for cyber warfare, but it did not have an option to be not ready for it.

Explaining the complexity of the cybersecurity and its combination with the AI, he said that cybersecurity was not only for computers.

“Let me paint a picture of a cyber attack. First, your networks are compromised and you lose connection with everyone. Then the electronic media is stopped so you can’t see what’s happening on the ground. Utilities and public infrastructure are destroyed. The idea is to either steal, sabotage or compromise,” he explained.

“It is called ‘fire sale’ in cybersecurity. In this, a country’s infrastructure is systematically disengaged,” he said.

He gave another example of how there was a plan to assassinate the head of a country without sending an assassin to kill him.

“The plan was to hack the pacemaker, installed in the heart of that country’s head, and increase its current which could alter the heartbeat and kill him,” he added.

Maliha Masood, another IT professional and expert in risk management, information security management, internal audit and software quality assurance, shared that like all the other fields, the cyberspace also had good and bad actors. She said:

The problem with good actors is that they need to abide by many rules and standards. Whereas, the bad actors are free to do whatever they can. So, they limit many procedures for cybersecurity experts.

She said that the people who were in the cyberspace in any capacity and thought that their privacy remained intact, they were living in an imaginary world.

The experts also discussed how modern weapons could be altered and manipulated through AI, which was why it was important to have indigenous weaponry so the risks of manipulations could be minimised.

PIIA chairperson Dr Masuma Hasan thanked the panellists in her closing remarks.

Dr Muazzam A. Khan Khattak of the Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers, Dr Waqas Haider Khan Bangyal of Kohsar University’s Department of Computer Science, Dr Nudrat Nida of National University of Sciences and Technology delivered speeches at the inaugural session of the day-long conference.

Published in Dawn, 12 November 2023

US ‘double standards’ seen as major factor behind Israeli brutalities

The Western mind has never forgotten the Crusades, Ambassador Ghori

The Pakistan Institute of International Affairs (PIIA) recently organised a seminar where former ambassadors and academics delved into the subject of ‘Israeli Aggression in Gaza and Peace in the Middle East’.

They spoke about the double standards of the United States and observed that it was the major issue that harmed the peace in the volatile region.

PIIA chairperson Dr Masuma Hasan spoke about the present crisis in Gaza after Hamas fired 5,000 rockets at Israel on Oct 7. “Israel was bound to retaliate and has since let loose the worst kind of terror on the poor Palestinians of the narrow Gaza Strip,” she said while also pointing out that even though the West calls Hamas a terrorist organisation, it really stands for an Islamic resistance movement. 

While pointing an accusing finger at the United States, former ambassador and Pakistan’s permanent representative to the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons Mustafa Kamal Kazi said that in the case of Palestine there can be no greater hypocrisy and double standards.

“The United States of America even vetoed a United Nations Security Council resolution which sought not a ceasefire but just humanitarian pauses in Israel’s bombing for medicine and other essential life supporting supplies to enter Gaza,” he said.

“In my view, Washington’s three decisions after the year 2000 which directly or indirectly harmed the prospects of peace in the region are the events after the 9/11 tragedy leading to the invasion and occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq, President Trump’s abandonment of nuclear accord with Iran, making Iran free to raise uranium enrichment to a higher level. Therefore, raising the interest of other regional countries towards greater competitive interest in nuclear technology and the so-called Abraham Accords, which were the brainchild of amateur strategist Trump’s son-in-law, signed by the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan. 

“But these countries were in no position to advance the cause of settlement of the Palestinian and Israeli issue. On the contrary these accords triggered Palestinian desperation that now even their Arab governments were abandoning them through American persuasion. This unity amongst the Arab countries is a factor, which dilutes their strategic and economic power potential,” he said. 

“The Arab League has 22 members out of which six — Iraq, Yemen, Syria, Libya, Sudan and Somalia — have been crippled by conflicts. Sudan was even dismembered and partitioned. The Arab League was founded within an objective to develop close relations amongst the member states. But this Accord speaks for itself. Very disturbing reports have emerged during the current crisis that some Arab countries spy on the poor Palestinians and report to Israeli intelligence. This needs some soul searching,” he added.

He also spoke about American-led invasions in at least seven Muslim countries during the past 23 years, which has claimed lives of more than a million and displacement to around 37m. “It’s a clear signal to the Muslim world where they are standing in a West-dominated world where Islamophobia continues to flourish,” he said. 

Joining online from Canada, Ambassador Karmatullah Ghori was of the view that the Western mind has never forgotten the lessons of the Crusades. He said:

When history repeats itself the first time, it is a tragedy. When history repeats itself a second time, it is a calamity

What is the aggression here? It is not even a war. It is a Palestinian struggle for all their fundamental rights as they have been living under Israeli oppression for the last 75 years

About America and Europe, he said that they wanted to create a Western colony in the heart of the Arab world, which they have quite successfully as the Arabs surrounding Israel have not been of much help. 

Speaking on the occasion, Prof Dr Talat Ayesha Wizarat, the former chairperson of the Department of International Relations at the University of Karachi and former head of the Center of Policy and Area Studies at the Institute of Business Management, said she feels depressed at the plight of the Palestinians. She said:

They are waiting for food, electricity and medical help. Israel has attacked hospitals and schools. Something has to be done very quickly

Everywhere the US is interested in a ceasefire but when it comes to Gaza, they are not interested in a ceasefire

As a solution, she said that perhaps all the 65 members of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) should tell the US that if it does not change its attitude, they are all going to break diplomatic relations with it.

“Considering the present state of fear this seems like a dream. But threatening to do this would be effective I think. If all of the OIC members do it then it will present a different scenario. So I think the Muslim countries should do it for their own good, because if they think that only Gaza is going to suffer and that is going to be the end of the story, it is not going to end there. The US has already destroyed six or seven Muslim countries in a span of 23 years. They will not stop here,” she said.

Published in Dawn 22 October 2023

Beyond national Borders: The High Seas Treaty’s Role in Marine Conservation

A range of ocean sectors, from fishing and aquaculture to tourism, maritime transport, and renewable energy, provide food and vital nutrition to billions of people and to millions of livelihoods. The ocean supplies more than half of the planet’s oxygen. To maintain coastal defences during increasingly volatile weather and storms, the ocean plays a key role in ensuring coastal defences during increasingly volatile weather and storms, especially in vulnerable coastal communities, cities and states. The ocean is our most important carbon sink, absorbing around 30% of the CO2 emissions discharged into the atmosphere and producing half of the oxygen required for respiration. 

This indicates that marine biodiversity is as important for humans as it is for marine life. To preserve this world has jostled upon a single cause: the High Seas Treaty, which aims for the protection and sustainable use of marine biodiversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction. It is estimated that the high seas cover approximately 61 per cent of the world’s oceans. These areas are beyond national jurisdiction and governed by international law. 

Challenges to marine biodiversity

Interestingly, marine biologists have revealed that whales capture tons of carbon from the atmosphere through the process of eutrophication. It is a process through which the nutrient-rich feces of whales enhance the growth of phytoplankton and other aquatic vegetation in ocean waters. Phytoplankton convert CO2 into organic carbon during photosynthesis. 

Human activities, such as oil and chemical pollution, as well as oil spills, impact whales and phytoplankton. In addition, climate change-induced increases in ocean temperature and acidification can affect phytoplankton populations and disrupt nutrient availability. Overfishing, particularly of species that are preyed upon by whales, indirectly disrupts the marine food web and affects nutrient levels. 

Pollution

Pollution is one of the leading causes of habitat degradation in marine ecosystems. Land-based pollutants, such as nutrients, heavy metals, and plastics, can harm marine life and contaminate marine environments.  According to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) Progress Report 2023, approximately 17 million tons of plastic trash have entered the oceans, accounting for up to 85 per cent of marine litter, with projections of doubling or tripling each year by 2040. According to this projection, unless action is taken, there will be more plastic in water than in fish by 2050. 

Overfishing

Overfishing is a reckless exercise that causes damage to the marine biodiversity. We deplete not only the fish we target, but also numerous other species captured unintentionally in our fishing gear when we cast nets too broad and trawl too deep. As a result of this search, the marine food web is constantly changing, resulting in a cascade of ecological effects. Coral reefs and bottom habitats suffer collateral damage, much like a thoughtless lumberjack razing forest. Furthermore, overfishing reduces genetic diversity in fish, making marine life less adaptable to the ever-shifting currents of environmental change. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, one-third of the world’s assessed fisheries are now pushed beyond their biological limits. To benefit both deep-sea wonders and future generations, we need to pay attention to and practice appropriate ocean stewardship. 

Ocean Acidification

 Ocean acidification occurs when the ocean absorbs carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This also changes the chemistry of the ocean. Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have nearly doubled during the industrial revolution, rising from 280 to over 400 parts per million (ppm). This process has been exacerbated by human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels. Within a decade, scientists have predicted that 86 per cent of the ocean will be warmer and more acidic than at any time in modern history. By 2100, the pH of the ocean could drop to less than 7.8, which is a drop of more than 150 per cent from today. This could have devastating consequences for marine life, food security, and the global economy. 

High Seas Treaty: A ray of hope

On 20 September, 2023, around 70 member countries of the United Nations (UN) signed the first ever ‘High Seas Treaty,’ which aims to protect the international high seas that are currently beyond any jurisdiction. All the major powers of the world, including the United States of America, China, France, Mexico, Britain, Germany, Australia, and the European Union (EU), have signed the treaty. This treaty is also known as Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction (BBBJ). Only 39 per cent of the world’s oceans are covered by UN conventions, 61 per cent are outside any jurisdiction, and a high seas treaty was established to protect marine biodiversity in this large area of the oceans. Globally, governance is absent in almost two-thirds of oceans. 

A decade of discussion, negotiation, and advocacy led to the adoption of this treaty, which navigated a number of thorny geopolitical issues, particularly the value of public good’s value. This opens the door for multilateral discussions that will have a profound impact on the future of our shared environment. 

As it gathered almost all the major powers of the world on a single platform to preserve the habitat of the marine ecosystem, the UN Secretary General António Guterres termed it a ‘success for multilateralism.’ In order to accomplish its goals, the treaty invokes the ‘polluter-pays’ principle and the ‘precautionary approach,’ these two are important doctrines of international environmental frameworks. 

Subtle Complexities within the Details

The agreement marked an end to a prolonged discussion, but the treaty to be ratified by 60 signatory states. The ratification of a treaty is certainly a tiring process because it opens up avenues for debate and conflicting opinions between stakeholders and interest groups. The lack of consensus usually sabotages the process and halts it. However, this treaty probably would not fall into a conspiracy, as it holistically talks about the existential threat posed to the marine ecosystem.  

Conclusion

With the increased involvement of humans, marine biodiversity is shrinking, causing marine species to become extinct. Furthermore, marine biodiversity is also closely associated with the environment of our planet, as it captures carbon dioxide, which is vital for our planet during times of environmental damage. A high seas treaty is urgently needed in the midst of this habitat degradation of marine ecosystems. This will further bring two-thirds of the oceans under the jurisdiction of global governments. Furthermore, it provides a framework for regulating human activities in the high seas which is necessary to protect the oceans for our future generations.

Asif Ali, Research Assistant at The Pakistan Institute of International Affairs.