Genocide: Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza and Palestine

The Pakistan Institute of International Affairs (PIIA) organized a Seminar on Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza and Palestine on Saturday, 9 March 2024 at 4.00 p.m. in the Library of the Institute. Introduction by Dr Masuma Hasan, Chairperson, The Pakistan Institute of International Affairs. Speakers: Mr Muhammad Oves Anwar, Director, Research Society of International Law (RSIL), Islamabad, on International Law and International Crimes in View of South Africa’s Case against Israel and the Ruling of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) Ms Sana Pirzada, Barrister and human rights defender, on Psychological Impact of the War on the People of Gaza Mr M. Shahrukh Shahnawaz, Advocate High Court of Sindh and visiting faculty member, Department of International Relations, Karachi University, on the International Community’s Role in Resolving the Palestine Conflict

While almost 31,000 Palestinians have been killed and 175,000 buildings destroyed by Israeli bombing in Gaza, the psychological trauma and mental pain of Palestinians, which is beyond comprehension for the outside world, is going to haunt them for the rest of their lives, legal experts and rights activists told attendees at a seminar on Saturday evening. 

The seminar organised by the Pakistan Institute of International Affairs (PIIA) was titled ‘Humanitarian crisis in Gaza and Palestine’. 

Mohammad Oves Anwar, Director Research Society of International Law (RSIL) was the first of the three speakers. He gave an overview of the crisis and international laws in order to understand what’s happening in the region. 

He said Gaza is the home to 2.3 million Palestinians, almost 31,000 have been martyred and 72,500 injured. 

Over 31,000 people killed, 175,000 buildings have been destroyed in Israeli bombing 

About 75 per cent of the entire population of Gaza has been displaced; 1.5m people have been crammed into the tiny portion of Rafah, the last bastion of any protection. “Israel has already started to attack it… Every bomb will have multiple casualties. Another startling fact is that 175,000 buildings, every single institution of higher learning, have been destroyed. That is, 61 per cent of built structure of Gaza has been destroyed.” 

He said the other concept that he wanted to look at was that of the occupation. “An occupation is a territory which is held by another country to which it does not have any lawful excuse to be there. After the global acceptance of UN Charter in 1945, acquisition of territory through conquest, through military attack, is simply not possible. You have blanket prohibition on the use of force or the threat of the use of force in Article 2(4) of the UN Charter. Therefore, any territory occupied after 1945 cannot become part of another state. If it does become part of another state, it’s called annexation. We have recognised opinions of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and of the Israeli high court which say that the territory of West Bank, Gaza is occupied territory. Every attempt of settlement is a form of annexation, unlawful by definition.” 

After informing the audience on how Israel violates international laws, Mr Anwar concluded his speech with the silver lining that “international laws give us the language of critique”. 

Barrister, writer and human rights defender Sana Pirzada in a moving presentation highlighted the psychological impact of the war on the people of Gaza. She said: “Mental illnesses are scars that cannot be seen. Death is lamentable, but it brings your pain to an end, whereas a mental illness is something that you have to live with for the rest of your life, which is what the people of Gaza have been doing for decades.” 

She as a lawyer wrote a letter to the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court because a few months ago he was asking everyone to send evidence that was required to prosecute Netanyahu and his team. “I said to him you and I have never been in a war zone, we do not know what the sound of bombs is like, we do not know what it feels like to wake up in a hospital to find our loved ones lying dead, we do not know what it feels to see the sight of dead children… If you have to live with something like that for the rest of your life, how is it going to impact you?” 

Ms Pirzada sharing some statistics with the attendees said that the World Bank in 2022 found that more than half of the adult population in Gaza had screened positive for depression; a smaller number showed signs of post-traumatic stress disorder. 

“Before the war, more than 500,000 children required mental help and psychosocial support. Now unfortunately the number has risen to over a million. What’s more painful is that half of the children in Gaza have contemplated suicide. Children as young as five have said that they’d rather die than live.” 

She said there are people in Gaza with obsessive compulsive disorder and there are those who have nightmares and shut their windows because they feel something is about to happen, someone is about to barge in or a bomb is about to explode. She also mentioned anxiety and insomnia. “Kids have nightmares of soldiers ransacking their homes. Ten thousand children have been killed. The blasts have led to amputations and according to the UN nearly 335,000 children under five have a high risk of severe malnutrition. Incubators have shut down. Children have lost limbs… Unicef has said that the Gaza strip is the most dangerous place in the world to be a child.” 

Ms Pirzada quoting a news outlet said most of the children in Gaza like to be engineers when they grow up because they want to rebuild Gaza or become doctors to help people because they’ve lost loved ones in front of their eyes. She rounded off her speech by saying that despite hell, the people of Gaza have shown resilience and adapted to community-based coping strategies. 

Shahrukh Shahnawaz, advocate High Court of Sindh, shed light on the international community’s role in resolving the Palestinian conflict. 

He said the birth of the modern international community was seen after the Second World War with the creation of the UN in 1945 along with the beginning of the Palestine conflict in 1948. The UN started with 51 members which later increased to 193. “It is estimated that between 1945 and 1960 around three dozen new states emerged after being freed from the control of their colonial masters. This allowed the former colonies to raise their collective voice against their former colonial masters.” 

Earlier, Chairperson PIIA Dr Masuma Hasan introduced the speakers to the audience.

Plight of stranded Pakistanis in Dhaka and billions in frozen fund

Pakistan has not been able to learn anything from the secession of East Pakistan as it still continues to follow the same policies and methods that led to the country’s disintegration on 16 December 1971, particularly the unequal distribution of resources and authoritarian as well as repressive attitude towards ethnolinguistic diversity in the country. 

The country also needs to recover funds of billions of rupees meant for the repatriation of stranded Pakistanis in Bangladesh, that lie in the Habib Bank Limited and had been frozen by the United States over allegations of terror financing after 9/11. 

These view were expressed by speakers at a seminar titled “The East Pakistan tragedy: contemporary concerns,” organised by the Pakistan Institute of International Affairs (PIIA) at its library here on Saturday. 

Speaking on the occasion, PIIA chairperson Dr Masuma Hasan said the separation of East Pakistan from West Pakistan was a monumental catastrophe which happened due to various factors that had accumulated over the past many years and that the effects of that tragedy had lingered on till this time.

Addressing the key issues that led to the separation of East Pakistan, Executive Director of Institute of Business Administration (IBA) Karachi Dr S. Akbar Zaidi said the country was doomed from the beginning as West Pakistan had prejudice and racism against Bengalis. 

They were looked down upon on the basis of colour and height and were kept marginalised, he added. 

Dr Moonis Ahmar, meritorious professor at the department of International Relations and former dean faculty of social sciences at the University of Karachi, highlighted the plight of stranded Pakistanis in Bangladesh, who are languishing in camps for decades. 

He said there were 66 camps in Bangladesh where thousands of ‘forgotten’ Pakistanis were living in a poor condition for the past 52 years as Pakistan had failed to repatriate them. 

He said efforts had been made to bring them back but those efforts were not successful. In 1988, the government of Pakistan took an important step and established a fund for the repatriation and rehabilitation of the stranded Pakistanis in Bangladesh with the help of The Muslim World League, an international Islamic NGO, Dr Ahmar said. 

However, that process was stopped and the fund of millions of rupees — now in the Habib Bank Limited and has multiplied over the years into billions of rupees — was frozen by the United States over allegations that it would allegedly be used in terror financing, he added. 

He said the people stranded there also complained that Pakistan accepted millions of Afghan as well as Bengali refugees, but they, the loyal Pakistanis, remained forgotten. 

The way out now was that the frozen funds be taken out and utilised to repatriate the stranded Pakistanis, or, if that’s not possible, to help them provide an honourable way of living in Bangladesh with equal rights and citizenship, Dr Ahmar suggested. 

Addressing fault lines in Pakistan’s nation building experiment, Dr Farhan Hanif Siddiqi, director and associate professor at the School of Politics and International Relations, Quaid-i-Azam University, said nation building was mostly seen and practiced in Pakistan, as was many other countries, as manufacturing homogeneity, or unity, through hegemonic practices, in which cultures, myths, symbols, and histories were manufactured with the intention of homogenising social and ethnic diversity in the service of nation building. He said:

But this is where the problem lies because ethnic identities and social diversity are denied and suppressed in such hegemonic practices.

He added that all this had been happening in Pakistan since its inception and contributed mainly to its disintegration. 

Therefore, he said, Pakistan needed to normalise diversity, multilingualism and multiculturalism and it was high time that these problems were addressed. 

He said it was very important for a country to be self-reflecting and self-critical for the purpose of nation building but such was not the case with Pakistan as the political leaders and establishment of the country always shifted the blame onto others and never accepted criticism. 

Dr Farhan also said that in Pakistan, the issue of majoritarianism had also become a major challenge where the majority was afraid of monitories and tried to keep them suppressed. 

Zafar Shafique, member of the council of PIIA and CEO of Paradise International Group of Companies, discussed the economic effects on companies, institutes and people after the fall of Dhaka. 

He said Pakistan faced various economic problems after the secession. There was industrial and economic disruption, loss of employment and termination of international contracts, all resulting in severe loss of profit.

Published in Dawn 17 December 2023

Yash Kumar: Geopolitical Challenges and Natural Resource Dilemmas and the Struggle for Economic Prosperity in Pakistan

Introduction:

Despite being bestowed with enormous resources including coal, copper, gold, human resource and access to vast ocean, Pakistan has failed to harness the benefits, its resources could offer to boost its economy. Although, there have been numerous causes behind its ill performance in utilization of its natural resources in national prosperity but geographical factors contribute the most to it. First of all, being located at the heart of hostile neighbors particularly, India and Afghanistan, it has been compelled to divert its attention on its security. Moreover, by virtue of its proximity with China and being in vicinity of Russia it has remained as transit route for global powers for their vested interests. Its mountainous terrain, climate change vulnerability, poor infrastructural development, instable region, terrorism and growing population have turned what could be a geographical blessing into geographical curse. Resultantly, Pakistan is suffering at every front which has hindered the economic prosperity by hijacking its upward flight.

Pakistan a land rich in resources: An Overview

“While history has been very unkind to Pakistan, its geography has been its greatest benefits” {Stephen Phillips Cohen}

Pakistan is a land of natural resources, its four provinces provide a vivid landscape and vast minerals, underneath their respective land. It has been a fourth populous country with more than sixty percent population below the age of 30 years. For instance, Balochistan encompasses dry terrain and covers one of the largest reserves of Gold, Copper, coal and other precious metals in the areas of Chaghi, Rekodik, Mach, Naushki and Dalbandin. Similarly, this provinces became the first to equip Pakistan with energy resources like gas from Sui in 1952.

Moreover, Sindh accounts as a vibrant land for agriculture and is endowed with world 9th largest coal reserves in Tharparkar. Likewise the Kirthar range is also known to be house of gypsum, limestone and other minerals. Besides, Sindh nowadays is the key indigenous source of gas for domestic use of entire Pakistan. Also, these two provinces make vast 1046km coast line that opens it to world and blue economy from south.

Simultaneously, Punjab and KPK are the house of salt, marble and precious stones respectively. Overall, Pakistan geography is blessed with the golden sparrow which has been restricted by its very neighbors and its overall mismanagement.

Geographical Factors hindering the utilization of natural resources in national prosperity.

Pakistan and its Neighboring Countries a) Surrounded by hostile and uneven neighbors:

Pakistan located at the crossroads of Asia is connecting point for entire region. It can open the landlocked Central Asian Republics to the world and provide the shortest route to enhance connectivity. Similarly, its multitude of natural resources can also get way to world`s market, fulfil indigenous requirements and boost Pakistan`s economy; however, this geo-political potential and endowment of natural resources are yet to be exploited to attain sustainable development. As this very geography is hindering the utilization of natural resources and strategic location in achieving the peace and prosperity.

Indian evil aspirations and destabilizing tactics against Pakistan:

India has been the focal point for foreign policy of Pakistan, Sardar Patel right after independence remarked that ‘Pakistan will crawl back to rejoin India’ and India since then has been lobbying against Pakistan and has diverted its attention towards security and defense of the state. Moreover, India is sponsoring terrorism and igniting separatist elements particularly in the province of Balochistan which is land of hidden treasure. Balochistan`s Gawadar a deep sea port is golden sparrow to make Pakistan a transit hub for entire region. But India`s destabilizing tactics which have been substantiated by the arrest of Indian Naval officer spying and financing terrorism in Balochistan.

Unstable Afghanistan: a Pandora box of regional instability:

Afghanistan, the western neighbor has also been a key hurdle in exploitation of natural resources. Afghanistan’s destabilization has always preoccupied Pakistan with plethora of other socio-economic ills including Kilashankov culture, smuggling of narcotics, and disturbance in social fabric, refugee crisis, terrorism, and security concerns. Similarly, the ripples of Afghanistan conundrum and its instability have incurred huge cost on Pakistan. By

virtue of being Afghanistan’s neighbor Pakistan was left with no option by the USA but to be front ally in global war against terror resulting in a complete mess in social, economic and political terms.

Transit hub for cold war rivals:

This location has always served as the transit route for global powers, during the time of British India, this location was considered pivotal for great game in between Soviet Russia and British. Simultaneously, after independence the cold war rivals the USA and Russia stuck here when Washington joined hands with Pakistan to push the red army back in Afghanistan. Overall, this location besides being land of opportunities has also been an open ground for global players to contend for their vested interest but in disguise it has left Pakistan to lag behind in prosperity.

Sanctioned Iran: a bottleneck towards connectivity:

Iran on western southern west is a fluctuating friend, although we enjoy good relations with infrequent border clashes but Iran being under strict sanctions of West has been a hurdle in attaining a sustainable connectivity and interdependence towards Europe. Hence, this unsound Iran has been matter of concern and has diverted Pakistan’s attention from harnessing its resources to improve its economy.

Giant China: An opportunity under surveillance of west:

There is no denying fact that China is all-weather friend and a great contributor to Pakistan’s economy. This rising superpower has always stood by with Pakistan in every situation, the launch of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is nothing but a lifeline for Pakistan’s economy. It offers win-win situation to both and has the potential to uplift Pakistan status by making it a transit route for entire Asia. However, the USA and India having their nefarious designs against China’s rise have been propagating propaganda against CPEC by naming it debt trap. Similarly, the separatist elements are ignited in the province of Balochistan to sabotage the progress on this giant project

Climate change vulnerable country:

Pakistan is among top climate change vulnerable countries, it has witnessed more than 152 extreme weather events since the turn of 21st century. The mega floods of 2010, heat waves of 2015-16 and super floods of 2022 are instances in point; besides, droughts, famine, locust attacks, glacial melts, erratic rains, low yield, sea-erosion, water scarcity have been norm of day. Overall this hydra-headed monster has diverted Pakistan’s resources to unwanted and unpredictable events for which Pakistan has been unable to invest in exploitation of natural resources subsequently lagging behind in national prosperity

Mountainous terrain: An infrastructural deficit:

The landscape of Pakistan is characterized by formidable mountainous terrain surrounded by Himalaya, Karakoram, Hindukush and Takt-Sulaiman range where these majestic peaks contribute the breathtaking beauty of the country, they also present significant challenges in unraveling the mysteries of nature in exploitation of natural resources. Moreover, this has been unfortunate that Pakistan has been unable to establish a viable infrastructure throughout the country resulting in inability of Pakistan in utilization of its untapped resources for economic growth.

Terrorism and Security concerns:

The menace of terrorism has hit Pakistan hard. The rise of non-state actors and their subsequent presence in Afghanistan and free movement through porous Durand line. The fight against terrorism has cost Pakistan billion and thousands of innocents hence, security has been the prime concern and a lot of resources are being exhausted to curb this. Consequently, Pakistan has been distracted from the path of industrialization, and resource extraction rather because of this danger the existing industry is shifting abroad.

Over-population a time ticking bomb:

Pakistan’s population has grown considerably and it has been fourth populous country with no infrastructure, pitiable industrial sector, poor governance and lack of employment opportunities. This rapidly growing population has been a liability on already depleting resources and Pakistan has been pre-occupied with accommodating this huge population and is unable to explore and exploit new resources to cut on its imports and increase exports. This has given birth to new spiral of deficits.

Power mess in Indian ocean: A coastal liability

Indian Ocean is in the south of Pakistan and according to Zbigniew Brezezinski ‘An arc of crisis stretches along the shores of the Indian Ocean’ it is because big powers are eyeing to the untapped resources and key chock points of Indian Ocean and the great game of Indian Ocean is already in play. India in Indo-pacific Strategy of the USA has been signified as the strategic partner to contain China and the militarization of Indian Ocean by activating Quadrilateral Security Dialogue and AUKUS has been a security concern for Pakistan. The campaign of empowering India against China has been a serious security concern increasing the security dilemma pushing Pakistan towards arms race to ensure its security. Hence, with these state of affairs the power mess in Indian Ocean has been a coastal liability for Pakistan.

Deconstructing the concept of geographical curse with respect to Pakistan: A Critical perspective.

There is no denying the fact that Pakistan could use its geography as a boon and could be among top performing economies of the world keeping in view its geostrategic location. Pakistan holding the crown of being a junction point between the resource-efficient and resource-deficient countries in the South Asian region. However this has not been the case the geostrategic location has been turned out to be geographical curse and Pakistan has been the prisoner of its own geography. The nefarious designs and porous borders in the east and west of country preoccupied it badly and posed serious existential threats distracting it from attain the path to sustainable development by utilizing its enormous natural resources for its national prosperity.

Conclusion

To conclude, states can change their friends and foes but they cannot change their neighbors. Similarly, Pakistan is a potential country, a critical juncture for connecting the Asian region and opening the gates of interdependence between the energy haves and energy have-nots and offer its own vast natural resources including gold, coal, copper, and precious minerals to secure not only economic gains but also sustainable peace and prosperity.

However, evil intentions of surrounding countries particularly India and Afghanistan and continuous instability in the latter states has caused huge losses to Pakistan and have redirected entire attention towards security and defense of borders. Resultantly, this very geography has been a curse as Pakistan is helpless to fully exploit its resources and is heavily engaged in security and diplomacy related issues.

Yash Kumar, Research Assistant, PIIA

Irfan Amir: The Trans-Afghan Railway: A real possibility or just a pipe dream?

The Trans-Afghan Railway aims to connect Uzbekistan and Pakistan via Afghanistan. The idea for this venture was discussed for many years, but the assignment had never been realized by observing the unstable situation of Afghanistan. However, after the withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan, it has become stable to some extent, so there is a growing interest to have trade opportunities between Central Asia and South Asia. The proposed railway project holds notable prospects for enhancing railway links from Uzbekistan to Pakistan through Pakistan, facilitating economic, security and stability in the region. However, it requires dealing with multiple challenges. These include the tough mountainous topography, managing the complexities of political uncertainty in Afghanistan, security and the lack of sufficient funding.

On 18 July 2023, the trilateral working groups from the three countries had a meeting in Islamabad. They agreed to finalise the Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan (UAP) railway project. The project would start from Termez in Uzbekistan to connect Afghanistan and Pakistan by Mazar-i-Sharif and Logar and the Kharlachi border point in the Kurram region. The project was earlier planned to enter Pakistani territory through the Torkham border in the province of Nangarhar, but later it was decided to add the Kharlachi border.

This railway link has prospects to enable effortless travel of people and goods between regions, which is expected to promote trade and economic growth. The easier movement would be substantial to reduce the cost of transporting goods between Central and South Asia. It would bring the attraction of new markets for businesses in both regions. According to the Ministry of Railways, the UAP railway project will boost regional trade and transit among joining countries along with the promotion of people-to-people networks in the region. 

Furthermore, the proposed rail line has the potential to shift Uzbekistan’s status from a doubly landlocked country to land-linked with the Indian Ocean. Unquestionably, Uzbekistan sees Pakistan as a more suitable partner than its alternatives for trade with other countries; precisely, Iran with economic sanctions and Turkmenistan with additional border inspections, transit tariffs, costs and delays. It is believed that this project will reduce the delivery time of goods to Pakistan by about five days and transport costs by less than 40 per cent. Moreover, economists have evaluated that the cost of a container for transportation from Tashkent to Karachi can be around 1400-1600 US dollars, which is half the price of transporting from Tashkent to Bandar Abbas, 2600-3000 US dollars. 

Presently, trade between South Asia and the Central Asian States (CARs) is limited, majorly due to the absence of proper connectivity. The Trans-Afghan Railway project can be a point to provide enough opportunity to achieve extensive trade in the above mentioned regions. It could be able to transmit around 15 million tons of cargo every year on the route of the Trans-Afghan Railway.  This plan would not only bring trade opportunities, but rather it could bring expectedly, 5 million jobs along the route by accessing cheaper and easier trade.

Challenges in realising the Trans-Afghan Railway

It is not a realistic approach to execute Trans-Afghan Railway Project without considering the complexities, one of the most significant ones is security. Afghanistan’s internal situation is unstable, and there are serious threats to the initiative. It could be targeted by different militias and insurgents residing inside Afghanistan. Under the Taliban government, Afghanistan looks a bit more peaceful, since the withdrawal of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), but still, there are different kinds of insurgencies. 

The Islamic State – Khorasan Province (ISIS) posed direct threats by carrying out several operations in the provinces of Kabul and Herat.  This could posture a thoughtful barrier to the progress of the Trans-Afghan Railway Project, chiefly through mountainous and difficult terrain. Besides, the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is pursuing military operations against the Pakistani government, which could be another danger to the successful execution of the project.

Additionally, the railway line would pass through the most challenging pass, known as the Salang Pass, which is located at an altitude of 3,500 metres.  It makes it the highest railway in the world. This Pass is vulnerable to heavy snowfall in the winter, which could restrict the railway for a long time. Further, the difference in gauges used by the three countries: Uzbekistan 1,520 mm, Pakistan 1,676 mm, and Afghanistan 1,435 mm are not to be ignored, as it could limit the efficiency of transportation times. 

Another considerable challenge is the cost of the project. The railway is expected to cost a huge amount of money, estimated to be around eight billion US dollars. This is a huge amount of money for the three countries. Currently, Tashkent, Kabul and Islamabad are not economically strong to have this burden. Simultaneously, there is uncertainty for the investors to invest as third countries; they know that the situation of Afghanistan is unstable and mishaps could be expected. 

Above all, the de facto government of the Taliban in Afghanistan is not broadly recognised in the world. As a result, international interest is absent. The Russian Railways, World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the Islamic Development Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank were asked to fund, but it was not successful. 

 The Trans-Afghan Railway Project has the potential to be a significant development for the region in general and Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan in particular, which would be more specific to economy, and security. However, past examples are not encouraging the present scheme, especially security and lack of international interests. It is still not clear who will take the burden to fund the entire project. So, it should be rationally analysed with pragmatic solutions to the challenges. Possible solutions can be establishing a mutually agreed forum of the three countries, to deal with challenges, whether it is the issue of funding or security. Similarly, it is crucial to develop integrated corridor management mechanisms to expedite the coordination between the railway authorities and stakeholders.

Irfan Amir is a Research Assistant at The Pakistan Institute of International Affairs

The finance minister’s only remaining function is to get more loans to repay past ones

“Any finance minister of Pakistan has only one very simple task of how to get more loans to repay past loans. That is the only function of the country’s economy left. There will, of course, be long statements about revenue generation, development, industrialisation, education, health, etc. But these are all fairy tales because there is no money for anything. And nothing will happen,” said eminent economist Dr Kaiser Bengali during our recent seminar.

Speaking at a seminar — The State of Pakistan’s Economy: What Next? — organised by the Pakistan Institute of International Affairs (PIIA) here on Saturday, Dr Bengali said that the Pakistan he knew no longer exists. 

“The revenue your latest budget claims to collect will never be collected. And the items on which the expenditure has been allocated will never be spent because we don’t have the money,” he said. 

“The only thing that we need to do now in terms of managing the economy is how to get more loans to pay past loans. And since we will not get all loans to pay all our past loans, we will sell our assets. Everything is on sale here. We already have a banking sector that is 80 per cent foreign-owned, we have a telecom sector that is 100 per cent foreign-owned but more is to come.

Shabbar Zaidi calls for correcting NFC award, creation of new provinces, putting an end to smuggling from Iran, Afghanistan

“We have just announced the privatisation of a port terminal in Karachi, a Saudi team has visited all our airports and three major airports are about to be handed over to foreign interests. We use all kinds of terminologies to say we are not selling them we are just outsourcing them but basically it is handing over control of these assets. More and more will follow,” he pointed out. 

Dr Bengali said that two windows have closed here, perhaps permanently. “One is the economy window and the other is the security window,” he said. 

“Soon we will be employees of Chinese, Saudi, Emirati and other employers as Pakistan will be owned by them. We lost our economic sovereignty. It didn’t happen today. From 1993 onward for 16 years three State Bank governors came from outside Pakistan. They were employees of international organisations, they had not served in Pakistan for more than 10 years but now that we are burying our economic sovereignty in a more formal way, the economy window has closed. 

“The security window has also closed. The international geostrategic architecture has changed. For some 60 years of the last 75 years of Pakistan’s existence we cashed in on the Cold War between the United States and Soviet Union. Pakistan did all the dirty work for the Americans and got paid for it. But the United States does not need our services anymore. If the confrontation is with China, the Americans need Indian, not Pakistan. In fact, Pakistan is an irritant in the process,” he said, adding that the irritant has to be tamed and de-fanged. 

“And if we are defanged then of course there is no security role to play, no wars to fight. Then what will happen? The economic footprint of the military will increase. They are already into services and industry. That will increase. So we achieved independence from British colonialism and we are entering the phase of cantonment colonialism,” he concluded.

Adding to the economic gloom, former chairman of the Federal Board of Revenue Syed Shabbar Zaidi said that Pakistanis don’t even realise that they have ruined themselves. 

“We don’t even have the money for repayment of our foreign debts of US $130 billion as per schedule. Some 85 per cent of our bank’s debts are used by federal government loans, inflation is on the rise, there is subsidy on electricity of over Rs1,000 billion, the state’s own enterprise losses are over Rs1,000 billion, there are unfunded pensions to be paid, over 50 million children are not getting education and on top of all that we have the highest population growth in the world,” he reminded. 

His solutions to the economic problems included taking a strategic u-turn on the country’s location advantage and see China as our supplier and the USA as our buyer. 

He also asked for transparency on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, an end to smuggling from Afghanistan and Iran, correcting the National Finance Commission Award, enforcing Article 140A of the Constitution by empowering local government, revival of the ‘Planning Commission’ with a non-political chairman and creation of new provinces, at least 10 instead of just four.

While sharing his opinions on the issue of the economy of Pakistan, Assistant Professor of Social Development and Policy at the Habib University, Dr Aqdas Afzal said that the country’s decline began when it opened free trade. 

“But can we even do the trade? Do we even make anything exclusive that the world would want to buy from us? No one here talks about investment in human capital. We don’t have a skilled workforce and we opened free trade,” he pointed out, adding that other countries are now into strategic trade and value added trade.

“The United States only aims to compete with China. It makes whatever China cannot make,” he said while providing an example of strategic trade. “We should also identify winners and pick them to compete with the rest of the world,” he said. 

PIIA chairperson Dr Masuma Hasan also spoke.

Published in Dawn, 16 July 2023

Book Launch: A General in Particular: Interactions with Pervez Musharraf

The closed-door dialogue on March 25, 2000 between US President Bill Clinton and Gen Pervez Musharraf, which is included in former Senator Javed Jabbar’s recent political memoir — A General in Particular: Interactions with Pervez Musharraf — became the topic of discussion at the book’s launch at the Pakistan Institute of International Affairs here on Thursday in the presence of Dr Masuma Hasan.

Reflecting on the aspects of that dialogue and the prospects for the future of Pakistan-US relations, Senator Jabbar, who was part of the cabinet of Gen Musharraf until 2000, said that when we talk about the two countries, we are talking about two very different countries. 

“Our relationship will always be in the foreseeable future. A relationship of inequality. A bilateral relationship in which the two are not equal but then that applies to every other country of the world. The US is so far ahead of other countries in terms of economy, in terms of the military that no country today, even China, is able to say that they can match the US in every respect. So, if every other country on the planet will have an unequal relationship with the USA, the challenge for Pakistan becomes how do we manage that inequality? It is not as if it is a hopeless situation. Other countries, which are also not equal to the US, have also shown that they can manage this inequality in a way that works for them.

“There are also symmetries when there are so many asymmetries. In the United Nations General Assembly, we are two equal nation states. There is also symmetry in the fact that the US and Pakistan are one of only nine nuclear powers of the world out of 200 nation states and that’s not to be disregarded,” he said, adding: “Our nuclear power does give us a semblance of symmetry with the US” and moreover quite positively:

We are nowhere near as powerful as the US but demeaning ourselves and losing self respect and self confidence is one of the worst things that we can do to ourselves when we are dealing with the US. We are very capable with tremendous potential. There is so much good in Pakistan

Moving to the dialogue between Gen Musharraf and President Clinton in 2000, he said that before the US president came he was the only one to oppose his visit due to the US ambassador’s outrageous conditions such as no photographs, eight hours, addressing the nation, etc. But he was overruled. Clinton was here to convince Gen Musharraf to spare ousted prime minister Nawaz Sharif. The meeting, which was to go on for only 35 minutes, went on till 85 minutes. 

“Musharraf began tentatively but he very quickly acquired confidence as he spoke. Clinton was also very stiff in the initial part but lo and behold, within 15 minutes of the dialogue, he actually started to relax and smile. The meeting proceeded towards cordiality rather than tension. Conversation moved very smoothly, there were chuckles even. The president’s aides were surprised that the president was enjoying a conversation with a military dictator. It was the charm of Pakistan, obviously. Even after the 85 minutes, the two leaders wanted an exclusive one-on-one meeting. 

“I was not a part of that meeting but I suspect that General Musharraf must have conveyed to him obviously the need to avoid the death sentence or execution of Nawaz Sharif and he must have kept in mind the fact that not too long ago another US president Carter had appealed to General Ziaul Haq not to execute Z.A. Bhutto and that general had ignored not just the US president but virtually all other leaders who had also appealed for Z.A. Bhutto’s life. So Clinton’s wanting assurance from Musharraf was perfectly understandable. Musharraf, from what we know of him, did not ever have the temperament of being a cold-blooded, callous kind of killer. He was not built that way. His psyche was not of that kind,” he said.

Published in Dawn, 10 March 10, 2023

Former federal minister and former senator Javed Jabbar on Thursday launched his latest political memoir “A General in Particular: Intonations with Pervez Musharraf” at the Pakistan Institute of International Affairs, revealing the closed-door dialogue between former American present Bill Clinton and the late former president and army chief Gen Musharraf.

Addressing the book launch ceremony, Jabbar uncovered every aspect of Pakistan and US relations and also shed light on the dialogue and prospects for the future of both countries. “We should stop supplicating before the US. We have to establish strong diplomatic ties with the US rather than demeaning ourselves,” said Jabbar, adding that the reality is that the US helped us on various occasions but not that much which we were expecting.

He suggested that we should make collective efforts to transform Pakistan into a strong and stable state, and we have to stop blaming India, IMF and others.

Highlighting the role of the military, he said that the military has strong interference in the internal affairs of Pakistan, but this is not an exception, as the militaries of power countries also have a say in foreign relations and policies of their countries.

Talking about former US president Bill Clinton’s visit to Pakistan in 2000, Jabbar said that India had tried to create hurdles in the visit of the US president to Pakistan. For this, India even staged an attack on the Sikh community in Kashmir and started blaming Pakistan, but that idea didn’t work.

He said that before joining the camp of the war against terror, Clinton held a series of meetings with Musharraf and discussed various issues in a very tentative way. The former US president, at that time, informed Musharraf that terrorists can pose a serious to Pakistan. “A meeting between Clinton and Musharraf was scheduled for 35 minutes only, but when it started both the leaders took around 85 minutes ignoring all the reminders to end the meeting.”

Jabbar said Musharraf had no intention to execute Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif because he knew that General Zia had committed a mistake by executing Zulfikar Ali Bhutto.

The former senator, while speaking about Musharraf’s progressive polices, said he brought massive reforms to the electoral system and one of them was that the minorities got the right to contest elections on general seats. This was the reason that three people from minority groups in Sindh won the general elections against their opponents.

He said Musharraf also tried to strengthen the Election Commission of Pakistan and introduced local governments. In addition, he said, the former president increased the number of seats for women and established several cultural centers. Above all, private TV channels flourished during the Musharraf era. “The electronic media enjoyed unprecedented freedom in Musharraf era.”

Jabbar, however, said that many unfortunate things also happened during the Musharraf regime. They were the tragedy of Lal Masjid, the dismissal of then chief justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, the issue of missing persons, and the killing of Nawab Akbar Bugti in a military operation. “Musharraf had no intention to kill Bugti.”

He said Musharraf was a president in uniform and also some of the generals became part of the cabinet, which created difficulties for him and the people around him. “I joined Musharraf because I thought there was a possibility to implement something positive and make reforms. I believe that Musharraf was a man with a constructive personality.”

Published in The News, 10 March 2023

PIIA Seminar on Hybrid Warfare: New Threats and Complexities for Pakistan

Security experts and social scientists have agreed that the growing advancement of technology has changed the mediums of conventional threats and it’s time for the country to develop skills and manpower using the latest technologies and aligning itself with the latest trends to meet emerging challenges especially in the context of future hybrid wars.

They shared these views while speaking at a seminar on ‘Hybrid Warfare: New Threats and Complexities for Pakistan’ organised by the Pakistan Institute of International Affairs (PIIA) in its library on Saturday.

“Terrorist attacks to subvert economic growth are on the cards of our enemies. Our armed forces and law enforcement agencies have bravely fought and are fighting against terrorism, but now we need to adjust our sails using the latest technologies and align ourselves with the latest trends,” said former additional director general of the Federal Investigation Agency and founder of Digital Pakistan Ammar Jaffri.

Speaking on the topic ‘Cyber security for the national security of Pakistan, he said: “Due to its geopolitical importance, Pakistan is subject to multiple grey zone threats. The enemy through constant propaganda campaigns is trying to portray Pakistan as a state which is responsible for sponsoring militancy and terrorism in the region. A discriminatory attitude was observed in the FATF where despite fulfilling most of the conditions, the country was still included in the grey list. After August 15, 2021, when the Taliban took control of Kabul, even the failure of Ashraf Ghani was being attributed to Pakistan. Despite acting as a facilitator of peace in Afghanistan, Pakistan is being doubted and projected in a bad light.”

“The new trends of fake/deep fake and disinformation/crimes on social media needs trained manpower in digital forensics. Future hybrid wars will be based on emerging technologies, which require trained manpower with demand-driven skills and first-hand knowledge of the latest trends of cyber warfare. Digital media is today more powerful than print and electronic media. Artificial intelligence has the power to make humans think what machines want them to understand,” he said.

Speaking about ‘Economic coercion as an instrument of hybrid war in the case of Pakistan’, the Principal of the School of Social Sciences and Humanities at NUST, Islamabad, Dr Ashfaque Hasan Khan, who joined the moot online, also said that the concept of war has changed from conventional to non-conventional.

“Economy is now the new battlefield. The main objective of this strategy is to incapacitate the ability of the country to strengthen its national security through weakening of economy, institutions and governance capacity. In the non-kinetic domain, economic warfare forms an important component of hybrid war,” the noted economist said. He pointed out:

The erosion of economic strength of any country is perhaps the most important element and likely the hardest to reverse once it is accomplished

Pakistan has the distinction of being the only nuclear power, which has sought financial support from the International Monetary Fund with great regularity. Since its inception, Pakistan has gone to the IMF 22 times, but from 1988 it has gone there 18 times. Barring four years [2004-2008], Pakistan has been taking the same medicine from the same doctor for 33 years in a row and with each passing day, Pakistan’s economic health has continued to deteriorate

We must realise that economic warfare has been imposed on us. We are in a hybrid war. We must say no to the IMF programme. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is a great potential to keep Pakistan away from the IMF programme.

Adviser at the Centre for Strategic and Contemporary Research, Islamabad, retired Lt Gen Naeem Khalid Lodhi, was also present virtually and spoke about ‘How to fight back in the hybrid environment’. He said that it is better to first understand the nature and purpose of warfare. 

“The actual and primary target here are the decision-makers. The second target is the youth,” he said, adding that tools are important if you want to fight back. “Without the wherewithal you can’t fight back,” he said.

“To fight the intricate war with finesse, you need a special force. Right now all think tanks are saying that we are in a hybrid war, but no one there talks about how to fight the war. A reinforced national security advisory secretariat needs to be revived and be directly responsible for planning how to fight this peculiar nature of war. They must combine under one roof all the requisite expertise to report directly to the prime minister, and give him continuous feedback,” he said.

PIIA Chairperson Dr Masuma Hasan also spoke.

Published in Dawn, 27 February 2023

The Round Table: The Commonwealth Journal of International Affairs

Video Footage of our 75th Anniversary Conference: Pakistan and the Changing Global Order: Day Two, Parallel Session on Kashmir

Video Footage of our 75th Anniversary Conference: Pakistan and the Changing Global Order: Day One Sessions